Price trend

According to SunSirs' commodity price analysis system, domestic light rare earth market prices have been rising since January. On January 12th, SunSirs' rare earth index was 552 points, an increase of 6 points from the previous day, a decrease of 45.18% from the highest point of 1,007 points (February 24, 2022) within the cycle, and an increase of 103.69% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present.)

Domestic prices for neodymium oxide, neodymium metal, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium metal, praseodymium-neodymium alloy, and praseodymium-neodymium oxide all showed an upward trend. As of the 13th, the price of neodymium oxide was 667,500 RMB/ton, a 5.53% increase since January; the price of neodymium metal was 805,000 RMB/ton, a 5.23% increase; the price of praseodymium oxide was 637,500 RMB/ton, a 7.59% increase; the price of praseodymium metal was 797,500 RMB/ton, a 4.25% increase; the price of praseodymium-neodymium alloy was 785,000 RMB/ton, a 6.44% increase; and the price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide was 647,500 RMB/ton, a 6.15% increase..

Analysis and Commentarys

Recently, domestic light rare earth prices have risen, and there was strong bullish sentiment in the domestic light rare earth raw material market. Macroeconomic news suggests a tightening supply-demand balance for praseodymium and neodymium products, further fueling market expectations of price increases. However, while the booming downstream industries such as new energy vehicles and home appliances have led to increased orders for downstream magnetic material manufacturers, the demand from these magnetic material companies was insufficient to support such high metal prices, resulting in weak actual transaction performance.

After years of restructuring, China's rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large corporations and characterized by relatively concentrated raw material sources.  With the continuous development of the rare earth industry abroad, China's share of global rare earth production has declined from 90% to 70%, which has brought some positive effects to the domestic rare earth market.

Market Outlook 

Recently, magnetic material companies have shown weak ordering and purchasing sentiment. The supply and demand dynamics in the light rare earth market continued to be volatile, with an imbalance evident in the supply and demand of praseodymium-neodymium series products.  Furthermore, the long-term growth trend in end-use demand from industrial robots, new energy vehicles, and wind turbines remains unchanged, and the penetration rate of high-performance neodymium-iron-boron permanent magnets in these end markets is expected to continue to increase. In the short term, against the backdrop of a stalemate between upstream and downstream players, the light rare earth market is expected to maintain a high level of volatility.

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