Price trend:

According to SunSirs' commodity price analysis system, on January 12th, the spot price of lithium carbonate recorded a daily increase of 7.25%. SunSirs' benchmark price for battery-grade lithium carbonate was 150,000 RMB/ton, a 25% increase compared to the beginning of the year, a 57% increase compared to the previous month, and a 90% increase compared to the same period last year; the benchmark price for industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 148,000 RMB/ton, a 26% increase compared to the beginning of the year, a 57% increase compared to the previous month, and a 94% increase compared to the same period last year.

Short-term price fluctuation factors: Policy buffers driving demand growth

On January 9, 2026, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration jointly issued a policy clarifying that export tax rebates for battery products will be adjusted in two phases: from April 1 to December 31, 2026, the value-added tax export rebate rate will be reduced from 9% to 6%; and from January 1, 2027, the tax rebate will be completely abolished, covering core products such as lithium-ion batteries, nickel-metal hydride batteries, and vanadium redox flow batteries. This policy provides battery companies with a buffer period of nearly three months (January-March 2026), and the first phase of adjustment (April-December) still retains a 6% tax rebate rate. The market has formed a clear expectation of "rush exports," driving an expansion of short-term battery production scale and directly boosting short-term demand for lithium carbonate, which is expected to mitigate the weak demand characteristics of the traditional off-season (January-February).

In the long term, fundamental factors remain the dominant influence on prices.

1. Supply-side constraints: Current operating rates at lithium salt plants are close to 90%, and new smelting capacity is in the ramp-up phase. However, due to high lithium ore prices, insufficient capacity from contract manufacturers, and maintenance at some companies, supply in January 2026 is likely to remain flat compared to the previous month, indicating limited short-term supply growth.

2. Inventory Dynamic Equilibrium: Although current lithium carbonate inventories have increased slightly, the scale is limited, and downstream companies have insufficient raw material inventories, creating a need for replenishment. If subsequent export demand exceeds expectations, inventories may enter a destocking phase again, further strengthening the upward momentum of prices.

3. Market Sentiment and Capital Flows: The correlation between lithium carbonate futures and spot prices is as high as 0.99, indicating that speculative demand from investors significantly impacts short-term prices. The current market sentiment is clearly bullish on lithium prices in the medium to long term, and the open interest in the main futures contract remains high.

4. Demand remains strong: The underlying growth logic for energy storage and new energy vehicles has not fundamentally changed, which will provide core support for lithium prices. Factors such as the advancement of domestic power market reforms, strong overseas demand for conventional energy storage, and the expansion of global data center construction will continue to drive the growth of energy storage battery orders, thereby boosting demand for lithium iron phosphate cathode materials and providing a stable increase in lithium carbonate consumption.

According to Business News Agency's lithium carbonate data analyst, the recent adjustment to the export tax rebate policy for batteries will impact lithium carbonate prices.  The surge in export demand during the policy's buffer period, coupled with low inventory levels, will likely drive lithium carbonate prices higher. The 150,000 RMB/ton mark may serve as a short-term support level. In the medium to long term, the increased export costs resulting from the removal of the tax rebate will suppress some demand, but the strong growth in demand from energy storage and new energy vehicles, along with the tight supply-demand balance in the industry, will continue to provide core support for lithium prices, limiting the potential for significant price declines.

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