Since global soybean production entered an expansion cycle in 2022, domestic meal prices have trended downward. Throughout 2025, the domestic meal market experienced a broad range of bottom-level fluctuations, with policy and fundamental factors interplaying to intensify price volatility. Looking ahead to 2026, amid ample global oilseed supply and demand, meal prices will remain under pressure with divergence among varieties. Rapeseed meal production will increase significantly, leaving room for further price declines, while soybean meal and sunflower meal face marginally reduced pressure with stronger price support.

Trade issues between China and the US, as well as between China and Canada, persist, driving ongoing shifts in the global trade landscape. Domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal supplies will increasingly rely on major exporters like Brazil, the UAE, and Australia. Meanwhile, traditional exporters like the US and Canada will continue seeking opportunities to negotiate with China and tap into increased consumption in other regions. Key focus areas for Q1 2026 include the realization of South American new-crop yields. Q2 attention will shift to oilseed import policies and soybean arrival schedules. The latter half of the year may see speculative opportunities in undervalued meal products, driven by traditional North American weather-driven market windows, adjustments in oilseed planting areas, and weather fluctuations.

Meal Market Review:

Policy-Driven Dynamics Intensify Domestic and International Volatility

In 2025, domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices diverged from U.S. soybean trends, primarily driven by policy disruptions and import timing.

From January to March, both soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices rose. On one hand, Sino-US tariff friction and China's retaliatory tariffs on Canadian rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil increased import costs. On the other hand, the USDA's unexpected downward revision of US soybean yields in January marginally improved the US soybean fundamentals, while delayed Brazilian soybean arrivals further intensified spot market tensions.

From April to August, soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices continued their fluctuating yet generally firm trend, primarily influenced by the interplay between policy and fundamentals. Between April and June, multiple rounds of tariff hikes between China and the US pushed rates above 100%, gradually diminishing the impact of policy drivers. Subsequently, from July to August, bullish U.S. soybean planting area reports, coupled with China's imposition of temporary margin measures on Canadian rapeseed on August 14, further boosted market sentiment. However, ample domestic meal supply and demand conditions, along with favorable growth of the new North American crop, capped the upside potential for soybean meal and rapeseed meal.

From September to December, domestic meal prices retreated, with rapeseed meal underperforming soybean meal. Between September and late October, with no substantive progress in Sino-US policy talks and the commencement of the new US soybean harvest season, increased supply pressure led to price weakness. Substantial progress emerged from the China-U.S. leaders' meeting in late October. Expectations of China's policy-driven purchases of U.S. soybeans triggered a sharp rebound in U.S. soybean prices, with rising costs driving soybean meal prices higher. Rapeseed meal, however, was more influenced by improved China-Australia relations and its own weak fundamentals: on one hand, pilot imports and procurement expectations for Australian rapeseed eased concerns over tight future supply and demand; on the other hand, both supply and demand for domestic rapeseed meal remained weak, limiting price support.

Global Oilseed Supply and Demand:

Marginal Improvement for Soybeans, Persistent Pressure for Rapeseed

The projected growth rate for soybean production in the 2025/2026 season has declined significantly, primarily due to anticipated reduced output in the U.S. and slower production growth in South America. However, substantial increases in rapeseed production offset declines in soybeans and sunflower seeds, maintaining a slight overall increase in global oilseed output. The USDA report projects global oilseed production at 690 million tons for 2025/2026, an increase of approximately 0.84%. Crushing demand is expected to rise slightly by 2%, with ending stocks accumulating to 143 million tons.

Soybean Market: Improved supply-demand outlook, but inventory constraints limit upside. Following three consecutive years of production growth in South America, the global soybean supply-demand balance remains ample, pushing international soybean prices into a downward cycle. The USDA report projects global soybean production at 422 million tons for 2025/2026, down 4.61 million tons year-on-year, primarily due to reduced U.S. output.

Brazil, the primary soybean producer, is projected to yield 175 million tons in 2025/2026, while Argentina's output is expected to decline slightly to 48.5 million tons. Export-wise, South American soybean supply influence has further increased due to international trade dynamics.

Overall, the actualization of South American soybean production will determine the potential for global soybean supply in 2026, impacting the price volatility of soybeans. In general, the first half of the year will focus on the extent of South American production realization and speculation around U.S. soybean planting area, while the second half will center on seasonal weather themes.

Overall, the realization of South American soybean production will determine the potential for global soybean supply in 2026, impacting the price volatility of soybeans. In general, the first half of the year will focus on the extent of South American production realization and speculation around U.S. soybean planting area, while the second half will center on seasonal weather themes.

Canola Market: Pressure Remains to Be Absorbed, Demand Focused on Trade. The 2025/2026 global canola season presents a pronounced surplus pattern, with overall supply-demand pressures at multi-year highs. The USDA projects global canola production at 95.27 million tons for 2025/2026, a 10.78% increase, while crushing demand is forecast to grow by 4.05%. China's imposition of 100% tariffs on Canadian canola meal and 75.8% temporary security deposits in 2025 has significantly dampened export demand expectations for Canadian canola.

According to Canada's Ministry of Agriculture, annual canola crushing is projected to rise to 11.8 million tons, primarily driven by anticipated export demand for canola oil. However, restrictions on foreign feedstocks under the proposed 2025 U.S. biodiesel policy may still exert pressure on realizing Canadian rapeseed oil exports.

Furthermore, while increased crushing capacity partially absorbs supply growth, exporting rapeseed meal—a key byproduct—remains challenging, potentially further weighing on international meal prices. Therefore, the key focus for Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal in 2026 remains the implementation of China-Canada and U.S. biodiesel policies. In Q1, attention will be on China's final anti-dumping ruling against Canada, while Q2 and Q3 will monitor adjustments to Canada's new-crop rapeseed planting area and weather conditions.

Meal Market Supply and Demand:

South America Dominates Supply; Aquaculture Constrains Demand

Since the last round of trade friction, China's soybean procurement focus has gradually shifted to South America. In recent years, Brazilian soybeans have accounted for over 70% of China's annual soybean imports. For the 2026 domestic soybean market supply, the realization of South America's new crop soybean production will determine the extent of medium-to-long-term supply easing in China, while the pace of soybean import crushing will influence the fluctuation range of domestic basis differentials.

Supply Side: Imports Still Dependent on South America, Focus on Procurement Pace U.S. soybeans currently face a 13% tariff restriction. Subsequent commercial purchases will primarily target new-crop Brazilian soybeans, with U.S. soybean imports largely driven by policy-driven procurement. Consequently, the market remains highly sensitive to weather conditions and import policy changes in Q1. As South American soybean production materializes in Q2 and Q3, China's soybean import supply is expected to rebound significantly.

Shipping data indicates that as of January 6, 2026, China has procured 4.57 million tons of soybeans for January shipment, achieving 100% of the procurement target. For February and March shipments, 8.33 million tons and 10.08 million tons have been procured, reaching 87% and 84% of the targets respectively. Procurement progress for shipments after April has been relatively slower. Regarding crushing margins, the futures spread for distant-month Brazilian soybeans remains favorable, with ample procurement windows for the new crop. Monitor subsequent changes in South American premiums/discounts and China's vessel-booking pace.

Demand Side: Feed consumption is slowing, and livestock farming continues to reduce capacity. Driven by high domestic livestock inventories and declining feed raw material prices, China's feed production increased further in 2025. Data from the Feed Industry Association shows cumulative production from January to November reached 304 million tons, up 8.3% year-on-year. The addition ratio of soybean meal in compound feed remained above 13%, compared to 12%-13% last year. Downstream procurement activity indicates robust domestic soybean meal demand in 2025. However, sustained losses in pig and layer farming sectors have triggered gradual capacity reduction in domestic livestock production.

Data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs shows that the number of breeding sows fell to 39.9 million in October 2025, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline. However, this figure still represents 102.3% of the normal stock level of 39 million. In November 2025, the domestic laying hen inventory stood at 1.307 billion birds, also showing a month-on-month decline. The inventory of parent stock for white-feathered broiler chickens in production was 48.82 million sets, a significant decrease from previous highs.

Pig and layer farming operations remain unprofitable, while broiler farming maintains relatively healthy margins. Looking ahead to 2026 feed consumption projections, the sustained high absolute levels of pig and layer inventories indicate a persistently oversupplied market structure, which will continue to support short-term feed demand. However, as capacity reduction in the farming sector continues, medium-to-long-term feed demand growth is expected to weaken, with annual year-on-year consumption projected to decline.

Outlook for Oilseed Meals:

Overall Price Pressure with Noticeable Rhythm Differentiation

The trend of ample global oilseed supply and demand for the 2025/2026 season persists. Continued pressure on international rapeseed supply, coupled with expectations of high yields for the new South American soybean crop, will continue to weigh on the price center of international soybeans and rapeseed. Domestic soybean meal fundamentals are unlikely to see significant contradictions, with price movements more influenced by cost factors and phased supply-demand dynamics. Meanwhile, shifts in rapeseed meal supply and demand will be more guided by trade developments between China and Canada, China and Australia, and other key markets.

Key focus in Q1 2026: South American soybean yield realization and final ruling on Canada's anti-dumping case. Should South American soybean yields materialize as expected, new crop supply pressures will continue to weigh on premiums/discounts, thereby driving down import costs. During the U.S. soybean and Canadian rapeseed planting/growing seasons in the second half of the year, changes in planting area and weather conditions could still trigger rebounds in undervalued meal prices.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on January 13th, the benchmark price of rapeseed meal, according to SunSirs.com, was 2460.00 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.47% compared to the beginning of the month (2471.67RMB/ton).

Application of SunSirs Benchmark Pricing：

Traders can price spot and contract transactions based on the pricing principle of agreed markup and pricing formula (Transaction price=SunSirs price + Markup).

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@SunSirs.com.