Macroeconomics

1. [Taxation] The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that, effective April 1, 2026, the value-added tax (VAT) export rebate for photovoltaic and other products will be abolished. From April 1, 2026 to December 31, 2026, the VAT export rebate rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6%; and from January 1, 2027, the VAT export rebate for battery products will be abolished. For products subject to consumption tax among the above-mentioned products, the export consumption tax policy will not be adjusted, and the consumption tax refund (exemption) policy will continue to apply. The applicable export rebate rate for the products listed in this announcement is determined by the export date indicated on the export goods customs declaration form.

2. [University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index] The preliminary January University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in the US was 54, a four-month high, exceeding the expected 53.5. Consumers' inflation expectations for the next year were 4.2%, unchanged from the previous month.

3. [Eurozone Retail Sales] Eurozone retail sales increased by 0.2% month-on-month in November, exceeding the expected 0.10%; and increased by 2.3% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 1.6%.

Energy

1. [Crude Oil] On January 9, international crude oil futures rose. The settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures February contract was US$59.12 per barrel, an increase of US$1.36 or 2.4%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures March contract was US$63.34 per barrel, an increase of US$1.35 or 2.2%.

2. [Crude Oil] On January 9, local time, Trump held a meeting with executives from some of the world's largest oil companies at the White House. Trump said that large oil companies will spend at least US$100 billion to rebuild the necessary capacity and infrastructure of Venezuela's oil industry. Trump also promised that US oil companies would receive security guarantees.

3. [Crude Oil] On January 10, the Iraqi oil minister stated that the Iraqi government is negotiating with the large American company Chevron regarding the West Qurna 2 oil field operated by Lukoil. Following US sanctions on Russian oil producers, Chevron and ExxonMobil are among the potential bidders for Lukoil's overseas assets.

4. [Crude Oil] Barclays reiterates its forecast of $65/barrel for Brent crude oil in 2026.

5. [Fuel Oil] Singapore Enterprise Singapore (ESG): As of the week ending January 7, Singapore's fuel oil inventories decreased by 1.344 million barrels to a three-week low of 25.408 million barrels.

6. [Coking Coal] On January 12, coking coal prices in the Qitaihe market remained stable, with main coking coal at 1,290 RMB/ton and fat coal at 1,340 RMB/ton.  All prices are ex-factory, including VAT and acceptance payment terms.

If you have any enquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.