ANEC stated that due to intensified competition from the United States, Brazil's soybean exports to China are expected to decrease by 10 million tons year-on-year in 2026. In 2026, Brazil's soybean exports to China will decrease to 77 million tons, a decrease of about 10 million tons from the 87 million tons in 2025.

Brazil's soybean exports to China are expected to decrease by 10 million tons, which will lead to a tightening of soybean supply from China and push up spot prices. Although intensified competition in the United States may partially offset the impact, stable demand and a supply gap are favorable for prices.

The reduction in soybean supply will push up the production cost of soybean meal, and spot prices may rise. Combining with the recent contract of soybean meal futures, such as 2605 (settlement price of 2,786 RMB/ton, change in position -21,160), it shows that the market is weak, but the expectation of reduced exports strengthens the future supply shortage, which is favorable for the upward trend of futures prices.

The decrease in soybean raw material supply will affect soybean oil production, and spot prices may rise. Combined with the recent contract of soybean oil futures, such as 2605 (settlement price of 7,970 RMB/ton, change in position of 16,768), which shows an increase in holdings, the expectation of reduced exports may further support futures prices.

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