The Agricultural Export Center under the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation reported that in the first 11 months of 2025, the total amount of agricultural products exported from Russia to China reached 6.7 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 14%. Therefore, by 2025, China will still remain one of the largest buyers of Russian food. In the first 11 months of 2025, China will still be the largest importer of the following agricultural products from Russia: rapeseed oil, soybeans, flaxseed, oats, buckwheat, poultry, beef, as well as frozen fish and crustaceans.

Russia's exports of rapeseed oil to China increased by 14% year-on-year. As the largest importer, China's increased demand may boost global supply, putting downward pressure on spot prices. Based on the data of rapeseed oil OI futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (such as the settlement price of the main contract 2605 at 8,990 RMB/ton, a decrease of 19 RMB, and a reduction of 3461 holdings), the expectation of supply growth strengthens the bearish sentiment in the market, and futures prices are under significant pressure, with technical indicators showing bearish dominance.

China remains the largest importer of soybeans from Russia, and the expansion of exports may increase domestic soybean spot supply, leading to downward price risks. The supply-demand pattern tends to be loose, suppressing the bullish momentum in the spot market, but attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent changes in China's import policies on actual supply and demand.

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