1. Weekly U.S. Wheat Export Sales Report

For the week ending January 1, 2026, net U.S. wheat sales for the 2025/26 marketing year totaled 118,700 metric tons, up 24% from the previous week but down 55% from the four-week average. Major buyers included the Philippines, an unknown destination, Mexico, Peru, and Canada.

Net sales for the 2026/27 marketing year decreased by 9,300 tons, primarily due to reduced sales to Peru. Weekly exports totaled 172,000 tons, down 60% from the previous week and 65% below the four-week average. Major export destinations included the Philippines, Mexico, Japan, Haiti, and Guatemala.

2. Ukraine's December wheat exports plummeted due to port attacks

Ukraine's December 2025 wheat exports fell nearly 25% year-on-year as Russia intensified strikes on its port infrastructure. Data from consultancy UkrAgroConsult showed Ukraine's total grain exports declined 16% year-on-year in December.

3. Sharp decline in Brazil's 2025 wheat prices to dampen farmer planting intentions

A joint study by the Center for Applied Economic Research at the University of São Paulo and Brazil's National Supply Company (CONAB) indicates that the significant drop in Brazil's wheat prices in 2025 has substantially weakened farmers' motivation to plant wheat, intensifying the country's reliance on imports.

Brazil's wheat planting area is unlikely to expand significantly in 2026, with some regions potentially seeing declines. This will maintain Brazil's structural dependence on imported wheat. CONAB forecasts that Brazil's wheat imports will remain high. Imports for the 2025/26 marketing year (August to July) could reach 6.7 million tons. Wheat imports from December 2025 to mid-2026 will exceed levels seen earlier in the year.

4. Argentina's Ministry of Agriculture: Argentine farmers slowed sales of new-crop wheat last week

Argentina's Ministry of Agriculture reported that Argentine farmers slowed sales of new-crop wheat last week.

As of December 31, 2025, Argentine farmers had pre-sold 11.59 million metric tons of wheat for the 2025/26 crop year, up 470,000 metric tons from the previous week. Sales at this time last year stood at 7.32 million metric tons. Last week saw 990,000 metric tons pre-sold.

Argentine farmers also sold 18.49 million tons of 2024/25 wheat, up 10,000 tons from the previous week, compared to 13.62 million tons sold during the same period last year. Last week's sales totaled 10,000 tons.

5. EU wheat imports down 52% year-on-year so far in 2025/26, Ukraine's share declines

EU data shows wheat imports to the EU have reached 2.15 million tons so far in the 2025/26 season, down 52% year-on-year. Ukraine, the top supplier, has seen its share decline, while Canada's share has increased significantly.

As of January 4, 2026, Canada is the leading supplier with 858,000 tons, up 44.2% year-on-year; its share stands at 40.0%, higher than the 13.4% share during the same period last year .

Ukraine ranked as the second-largest supplier with 479,000 metric tons, down 83.9% year-on-year; its share fell from 67.2% to 22.4% compared to the same period last year.

Moldova was the third-largest supplier with 371,000 metric tons, up 0.9% year-on-year; its share increased from 8.3% to 17.3%.

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