According to the annual outlook report authored by Rafael Silveira, analyst and consultant at consulting firm Safras & Mercado, factors such as South American supply surplus, U.S. production prospects, and geopolitical uncertainties will shape soybean price trends in 2026.

Silveira noted that looking ahead to 2026, ample soybean market supply will exert downward pressure on short-term prices, while support from Brazil's soybean premium is expected to diminish. Even though Brazil maintains a significant share of global exports, it may still face challenges from a bumper South American soybean harvest, inventory buildup, reduced premiums, and slower sales of the new crop. These factors often prompt producers to accelerate spot sales, particularly between April and May, to meet financial obligations. Additionally, Brazil's credit environment is expected to remain tight in 2026, with financing difficulties directly impacting sales volumes.

In the United States, despite record-high soybean yields in the 2025/26 crop year, planting area declined. Falling soybean futures prices led U.S. farmers to significantly reduce soybean acreage, shifting a large portion to corn. This resulted in record U.S. corn production and a year-over-year decline in soybean output. The USDA currently projects U.S. soybean production at 115.7 million tons, a volume that still exerts pressure on U.S. ending stocks. Concurrently, U.S. soybean exports remain fragile, primarily impacted by the U.S.-China trade war.

In Brazil, the upcoming soybean harvest is projected to be quite robust, estimated at a record 178.7 million tons. Despite irregular rainfall early in the planting season causing delays in some areas (particularly the Northeast), rainfall in the Midwest and Northeast has steadily recovered after initial delays, reducing yield risks. In Argentina, soybean production is estimated at 51.1 million tons, reinforcing expectations of another substantial South American soybean supply.

Silveira stated that from a climatic perspective, there are currently no clear signs indicating significant yield losses. Even if January brings reduced rainfall and higher temperatures, the impact would be limited to yield adjustments, and current weather forecasts do not indicate such conditions. Therefore, barring extreme weather events, South American supply will remain robust, naturally exerting pressure on the international soybean market.

Brazilian Soybean Prices to Face Pressure in First Half of 2026

Given current high yield expectations, Brazilian domestic soybean prices will face pressure in 2026, particularly during the first half of the year.

Brazil's 2025 export situation was exceptional. Despite record production, prices remained firm in the second half of 2025—even rising from mid-year onward—as export premiums offset declines in Chicago soybean futures. Port premiums approached $2 per bushel during certain periods, driven by the impact of the U.S.-China trade war. Brazilian soybean exports reached a record high in 2025, driven by robust Chinese demand.

However, Silveira cautions that Brazil's export outlook for 2026 warrants caution. China's soybean crushing margins remain suboptimal, and inventory levels are relatively high. The conclusion of a U.S.-China trade agreement also poses tangible risks to Brazilian exports. Should China fulfill its commitment to purchase approximately 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually over the next three years, it could significantly narrow Brazil's export window, particularly during the latter half of each year. Consequently, Brazil's soybean ending stocks in 2026 are projected to be more ample than in the previous year.

Regarding domestic demand, Brazil is expected to crush around 59 million metric tons of soybeans in 2026, primarily driven by increased soybean oil consumption spurred by the expansion of the biofuel industry.

To avoid excessive end-of-season stockpiles, Brazil must export at least 109 million tons of soybeans in 2026. Should part of this export demand shift to the United States, it could significantly impact domestic prices.

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