Price trend

According to the commodity price analysis system of SunSirs, as of January 9, 2025, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong, China, was 5,766 RMB/ton. This represents an increase of 133 RMB/ton compared to January 1st (reference price of 5,633 RMB/ton), a rise of 2.37%. Compared to December 1st (reference price of 5,166 RMB/ton), the price increased by 600 RMB/ton, a rise of 11.61%.

With a positive market sentiment, the focus of the n-butanol market in Shandong shifted upwards this week

According to the commodity price analysis system of SunSirs, this week (January 4-9), the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong province showed an overall trend of initial stability followed by an increase. From January 4th to 7th, the n-butanol market in Shandong remained stable at a high level, with a positive trading atmosphere. From January 8th to 9th, driven by multiple positive factors, n-butanol manufacturers and suppliers raised their ex-factory prices by 100-200 RMB/ton, with the price ranging from approximately 5,700 to 5,900 RMB/ton.

Analysis of market influencing factors

Supply side: This week, domestic n-butanol producers implemented planned plant maintenance, and some n-butanol factories in Shandong operated at reduced capacity. The overall industry operating rate decreased compared to last week, leading to a contraction in market spot supply, which provided fundamental support for price increases.

Demand side: As of January 9, some users of n-butanol's downstream products, such as butyl acetate and butyl acrylate, are expected to stock up before the Chinese New Year. Although downstream industries such as coatings and adhesives are in their traditional off-season, leading companies maintain stable demand-driven purchasing. Therefore, the demand side is transmitting positive signals to the market.

Regarding costs: The price of propylene, the raw material for n-butanol, rose this week. The increase in raw material costs provided cost support for n-butanol producers, strengthening their willingness to maintain or raise prices and becoming a key driver of price increases.

Market Outlook

In the short term, the tightening supply of n-butanol is expected to continue, and downstream pre-holiday stocking demand has not yet been fully released. According to SunSirs' n-butanol data analyst, n-butanol prices in Shandong province are expected to fluctuate at a high level next week, maintaining a price range of approximately 5,750-5,900 RMB/ton. The actual price trend will depend on changes in supply and demand as well as cost factors.

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