In 2025, the MIBK industry, influenced by the continuously declining price of its raw material acetone, exhibited the core characteristics of "price bottoming out, structural differentiation, and pattern reshaping." China further consolidated its dominant global position thanks to its advantages in both production capacity and demand. In 2026, the market will move beyond its previous slump and enter a new stage of high-quality development characterized by "optimized supply and demand, price recovery, and high-end product leadership." The industry's competitive logic will shift from scale expansion to a focus on both quality and efficiency.

Throughout the year, price fluctuations showed a pattern of "initial stability followed by a decline, reaching a low point at the end of the year." At the beginning of the year, supported by the price of raw material acetone, the mainstream transaction price in the East China market remained at 9,500-9,600 RMB/ton; from April onwards, with the continuous decline in acetone prices (reaching a five-year low for the year) and increased supply pressure, prices began a continuous downward trend. The decline accelerated in November and December, and the average price in the national market at the end of the year was 27.06% lower than at the beginning of the year.

Market landscape: China's dominant position was strengthening, and the import and export structure was optimizing.

Production Capacity and Supply: China's production capacity reached 600,000 tons per year by 2025 (accounting for 40% of the global total), concentrated in chemical industrial parks in East China (Jiangsu and Shandong) and North China. Wanhua Chemical, Ningbo Zhenyang, and Shandong Jinling were the leading companies. Production capacity in Europe and the US continued to shrink, with overseas giants holding less than 5% market share. Over 70,000 tons of capacity were under construction or planned, including projects by Sinopec Nanjing Chemical (45,000 tons) and Wanhua Chemical (30,000 tons), laying the foundation for capacity expansion in 2026.

Demand Structure: Rubber antioxidants remain the largest consumption area (accounting for over 40%), maintaining stable growth driven by the automotive and construction industries; surface coatings account for nearly 50%, and although electronic-grade MIBK accounts for less than 8%, its average annual growth rate exceeds 12%, making it a high-value-added core growth point.

Import and Export Dynamics: Export volume exceeded 80,000 tons, mainly destined for Southeast Asian and South American markets, with export prices ranging from US$1,100 to US$1,300 per ton, 13%-17.5% higher than the domestic average price; import volume decreased significantly to 9,200 tons (a year-on-year decrease of 71.43%), concentrated in high-purity electronic-grade products. Import dependence continues to decline, and the industry is gradually transforming into a net exporter.

MIBK Market Development Outlook for 2026

(I) Price Outlook: The overall trend is stable with a slight upward bias, and structural opportunities are becoming more prominent.

Overall trend: The average price is expected to rebound to 8500-9000 RMB/ton for the whole year, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%-28.6%. ① Capacity utilization rate will increase to 75%-80%, easing the supply-demand imbalance; ② Environmental protection measures will eliminate small and medium-sized production capacities, thus reducing supply; ③ The increasing proportion of high value-added products such as electronic-grade products will drive up the average price.

Fluctuations in acetone prices and the substitution of bio-based solvents may still trigger short-term price volatility; therefore, close attention should be paid to the phenol and acetone market situation and crude oil price trends.

(II) Production Capacity and Competition: Concentration continues to increase, with leading companies dominating the market.

Capacity expansion: Projects such as those by Wanhua Chemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical will release approximately 100,000 tons of new capacity, bringing the total capacity to an estimated 700,000 tons.

(III) Demand Growth: Traditional sectors show steady growth, while emerging sectors experience breakthroughs, resulting in clear overall growth.

Traditional sectors: The coatings industry is driven by building renovation and automotive lightweighting, maintaining a growth rate of 3-4%; rubber antioxidants continue to grow with the upgrading of the tire industry and remain a core driving force. In 2024, the production of rubber antioxidants reached 451,600 tons, providing stable support for MIBK demand.

Emerging fields: Electronic-grade MIBK is rapidly gaining traction in semiconductor cleaning and photoresist stripping, with its market share expected to increase to 10%; lithium-ion battery binder additives have been validated by companies such as CATL, creating tens of thousands of tons of additional demand; and the pharmaceutical intermediates sector is benefiting from the rise of domestically developed innovative drugs, with a growth rate of approximately 9%.

In 2026, the consumer goods trade-in policy will be strengthened, releasing demand in end-use industries such as automobiles and home appliances, indirectly driving growth in downstream sectors of MIBK, such as coatings and rubber antioxidants.

In 2025, the MIBK industry experienced "price declines and structural transformation," with China dominating global production and demand. Green transformation and high-end development became core themes. Looking ahead to 2026, the industry will enter a new phase of "stable capacity growth, diversified demand, increased concentration, and price recovery."

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