According to the price trend chart and data for hot rolled steel sheet and coil in 2025, the overall trend showed an initial surge, a sharp drop in the middle of the year, a rebound and peak around mid-year, followed by a fluctuating decline in the later part of the year. The overall price decrease was 3.17%, with an average annual price of 3,954.43 RMB/ton. A detailed breakdown was as follows:

1. Initial surge followed by a decline (January-May): At the beginning of the year, prices initially rose slightly to around 3,465 yuan/ton, then entered a downward trend, falling to a relatively low point for the year around May (approximately 3,270 yuan/ton). This decline was mainly influenced by market supply and demand dynamics and weaker-than-expected downstream demand.

2. Mid-year violent price rebound peaks (June-July): Prices rose rapidly in June and July, reaching the year's highest point of around 3,610 yuan/ton. This rebound was likely driven by factors such as rising raw material costs, steel mill maintenance and production cuts, and increased market speculation. This period represents the core peak price range for the entire year. 

3. Volatile downward trend in the second half of the year (August-December): After peaking in July, prices began a volatile downward trend. Although there were periodic small rebounds, the overall price level continued to decline, falling to around 3,300 yuan/ton by the end of the year. Ultimately, the year saw a 3.17% decrease, reflecting the weak downstream demand and lack of market confidence in the second half of the year.

According to the price trend chart and data for cold rolled steel sheets in 2025, the year showed a pattern of "sharp unilateral decline + mid-year rebound + year-end decline," with an overall decrease of 9.36%. The average annual price was 3,972.36 yuan/ton, and the decline was significantly greater than that of hot rolled steel sheets and coils during the same period.

The construction machinery industry also accounts for a large share of the downstream market for hot-rolled steel coils. According to the China Construction Machinery Association, the cumulative sales of excavators from January to November 2025 reached 212,162 units, a year-on-year increase of 16.7%, showing growth in both domestic and international markets, with export and domestic sales volumes being roughly equal.

From January to November 2025, the automotive industry experienced growth in both production and sales, with new energy vehicles and exports serving as key drivers; the home appliance industry faced pressure from weak domestic demand, while trade-in programs and export structures showed divergence, resulting in an overall pattern of "strong automotive sector, weak home appliance sector." Key overall data: Production and sales reached 31.127 million units, a year-on-year increase of 11.9%; November production and sales reached 3.532 million units, setting a new monthly record. Major home appliance retail (November): Air conditioner sales decreased by 31.8% year-on-year (domestic sales down 39.8%), while refrigerator/washing machine exports increased by 7.6%/15.8%, and air conditioner exports decreased by 25.7%. Emerging categories: Large-capacity dishwashers and clothes dryers saw growth exceeding 50%, but online sales of robotic vacuum cleaners during the Double 11 shopping festival decreased by 24.4%, indicating a cooling of overall promotional activity. Drivers and constraints: Trade-in policies provided support; however, the weak post-real estate cycle and intensified price wars dragged down overall industry growth.

Sunsirs predicts that hot rolled sheet and coil prices may show a fluctuating upward trend in 2026, based primarily on the following factors:

Factors driving the increase

1. Raw Material Costs: If raw materials such as iron ore and coking coal are affected by reduced mining output and tight supply-demand conditions, rising costs will force up the price of hot rolled steel sheets and coils; at the same time, stricter environmental policies will increase production costs for steel mills, providing bottom-line support for prices.

2. The recovery in downstream demand, driven by increased infrastructure investment (such as municipal and transportation projects), and the recovery of the machinery manufacturing and automotive industries, will boost end-user demand for hot rolled steel sheets and coils. This is especially true during the traditional peak demand season of Q2-Q3, which is likely to drive prices upward.

3. Industry supply contraction: Steel mills are undergoing capacity replacement and production cuts/maintenance as a regular practice. Coupled with increased industry concentration, the market supply and demand balance is expected to shift from loose to tight, providing momentum for price increases.

Volatility constraints

1. Macroeconomic trends: If the global economic recovery falls short of expectations, or if the domestic real estate sector recovers slowly, it will suppress the pace of downstream demand release, leading to temporary pullbacks during periods of price increases.

2. Inventory Cycle Fluctuations: The accumulation and depletion of inventory by traders and steel mills can trigger short-term price volatility. For example, the stocking up of inventory at the beginning of the year can push prices up, while high inventory levels can later suppress prices.

3. Fluctuations in overseas hot rolled sheet and coil prices and the impact of imported resources, transmitted through the international market, will have a ripple effect on the domestic market, causing periodic price fluctuations.

Trend and rhythm prediction

First half of the year: Driven by the resumption of work after the Spring Festival and the start of infrastructure projects, prices initially saw a slight rebound. However, if demand falls short of expectations, a short-term correction may occur;

Second half of the year: With the arrival of the peak season for downstream demand and continued support from the cost side, prices are highly likely to enter a volatile upward trend. Overall, the year will show a pattern of "lower prices in the first half, higher prices in the second half, and fluctuating increases."

In summary, hot-rolled steel sheets and coils are likely to show a fluctuating upward trend in 2026.  With both supply and demand increasing, prices may gradually recover. However, due to factors such as fluctuations in raw material prices, changes in market sentiment, and the policy environment, the price trend may exhibit some volatility.

If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.