StoneX forecasts Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production at 177.6 million tons, a 0.2% increase from the December forecast of 177.2 million tons, and a 5.2% increase compared to the previous year's production.

This production adjustment is mainly due to an upward revision of 0.8% in soybean production estimates for Mato Grosso state, reaching 46.9 million tons, although this is still 7.1% lower than the previous year. Weather conditions were favorable in December, but subsequent rainfall has been inconsistent, and high temperatures are also a concern.

Overall, the outlook for Brazilian soybean production remains optimistic, although the yield of late-planted soybeans will depend on weather conditions before mid-March.

Soybean harvesting has already begun in some parts of Brazil, concentrated in irrigated areas less affected by drought.

StoneX stated that due to the slight upward revision in soybean production and no adjustments to consumption data, the 2025/26 soybean ending stocks have been increased to 4.6 million tons.

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