The autumn grain procurement season has entered a critical phase. China's corn market is experiencing robust buying and selling activity, with procurement progress outpacing previous years during the same period and prices on the rise—particularly in the Northeast region. According to monitoring by the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration, corn procurement prices in the Northeast have increased by approximately 10% year-on-year.
What drives the price surge in Northeast corn? Wang Xiangbo, a senior analyst at Zhengzhou Grain Wholesale Market, attributes the increase to multiple overlapping factors. First, adverse weather conditions have impacted certain domestic production areas. During the critical autumn harvest period of 2025, provinces like Henan, Shandong, and Hebei experienced prolonged rainy weather. New corn generally had higher moisture content, and corn that couldn't be dried in time showed significantly higher sprouting rates and mold growth compared to previous years. This forced the North China production areas, which previously had a certain degree of self-sufficiency, to import large quantities of corn from Northeast China, driving up corn prices in the Northeast. Second, the China State Grain Reserves Corporation intensified its crop rotation procurement efforts, playing a positive role in stabilizing the market and expectations. Additionally, a sharp contraction in imports boosted demand for domestically produced corn. Customs data shows that in the first 11 months of 2025, China imported a cumulative total of 1.85 million tons of corn, down 86.1% year-on-year.
Benefiting from favorable factors like rising prices, corn cultivation profits for Northeast farmers in 2025 were relatively strong, showing a significant year-on-year increase. During recent interviews in Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia, reporters learned that local corn prices have risen from around 2,050 yuan per ton at the beginning of the harvest season to approximately 2,230 yuan per ton. As corn prices climb, farmers are becoming more reluctant to sell. “We have grain drying and storage facilities. We dry and store the corn, waiting to sell when the price is right,” said Zhu Dexi, chairman of the Jiaye Planting and Breeding Cooperative in Tongliao Economic Development Zone, Inner Mongolia.
In contrast to the increased production and income in Northeast China, corn yields in North China and the Huanghuai region have been subpar. The Huanghuaihai region experienced drought followed by flooding during the corn growing season, significantly impacting maturation and harvest. Persistent high temperatures and humidity also caused ear rot in some areas. Some corn became moldy and unsuitable for feed, forcing it into deep processing at lower prices. With a shortage of dry grain needed by food and feed enterprises, corn that was promptly harvested and dried to good quality fetched purchase prices around 2,300 yuan per ton. Large quantities of damp grain could only enter deep processing plants at lower prices, and after quality deductions, the actual purchase price ranged between 2,000 and 2,100 yuan per ton.
Corn is China's largest grain crop by production volume. In 2025, corn output exceeded 300 million tons, representing a 2.1% increase from 2024 and accounting for 42% of the nation's total grain production. It was the primary driver of annual grain output growth. Wang Xiangbo noted that the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia constitute the core corn-producing region. China's corn yield increase in 2025 primarily resulted from highly favorable light, temperature, and water conditions during the growing season in Northeast China. Temperatures were generally higher than average, precipitation was 3 to 5 percentage points above normal, and no significant natural disasters occurred. The corn yield increase in the Northeast region laid the foundation for the national grain production growth. Meanwhile, Xinjiang's rapid expansion of corn planting area in recent years also contributed significantly to the national corn yield increase.
Corn serves diverse purposes, primarily in food, feed, and deep processing sectors. Its processing chain is extensive, and market activity is robust. Corn reigns as the “energy king” in the feed industry. Annual feed consumption reaches approximately 200 million tons, accounting for 65% to 70% of total corn usage. Livestock populations, including hogs and laying hens, remain at their highest levels in recent years, driving strong feed demand. Simultaneously, corn functions as a vital “golden raw material” in industrial applications. The corn deep-processing sector consumes about 78 million tons annually, accounting for 25% to 30% of total corn consumption. Processing capacity continues to expand, solidifying the industrial consumption foundation. As the industry evolves and the supply chain extends, China's corn deep-processing products now encompass diverse categories including starch and starch sugars, alcohols, and amino acids. These products possess strong global competitiveness, with exports steadily increasing in recent years.
Industry experts believe that considering both domestic feed demand and deep processing production trends, the current corn consumption foundation remains solid, providing price support.
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