On Monday evening Beijing time, copper futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) touched$13,000 per ton for the first time in history, marking the continuation of the rise in this key industrial metal in 2026.
The reason for the rise in copper prices is still the logic from last year, combined with the fact that the market investment enthusiasm has clearly warmed since the beginning of the year.
Supply fundamentals, the latest news includesthe strike at the Mantoverde copper-gold mine in northern Chile due to the breakdown of labor negotiations. Chile is the world's largest copper producer, and the affected mine is expected to produce between 29,000 and 32,000 tons of copper in 2025.
Of course, the fundamental supply and demand shocks come from the US Trump administration. It is reported that the US may review its tariff exemption policy for refined copper in 2026. Traders have accelerated shipments to the US in recent weeks, and the re-activated arbitrage transactions have further exacerbated the regional mismatch in global copper inventories.
In a report released on Monday, UBS said that global refined copper in 2025 would actually be oversupplied, but US tariffs have distorted the flow of the metal/inventories and have effectively pushed up US imports. UBS noted that, The US has hoarded about half of the global inventory, but its demand share is less than 10%. This means there is a risk of supply reduction in other regions. The London spot-three-month futures price spread is still firmly in a discount pattern, a pattern that indicates recent supply tightness.
At the same time, a series of accidents have also been a driving force behind the metal's 42% surge last year, the biggest annual gain since 2009.
For example, the mudslide/flow of wet ore at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia caused multiple deaths and production suspension, leading to a significant reduction in the output of the world's second-largest copper mine; the El Teniente copper mine in Chile was affected by a collapse triggered by an earthquake, resulting in multiple deaths and a temporary suspension of operations; the Kakula copper mine in the DRC's mine-shaking incident will also continue to impact capacity in 2026.
Glencore, which is seeking to become the "world's largest copper producer," also said,copper capacity will continue to decline until 2026 and then rebound in 2027.The company expects copper capacity in 2025 to be between 85-87.5 million tons, nearly 40% less than in 2018, and the copper production forecast for 2026 is only 81-87 million tons.
LME Tin, which surged 39% last year, also rose more than 5% on Monday, further demonstrating the market's enthusiasm for industrial metals. In addition, the spot gold price has risen by $100, recovering the $4,400 per ounce level, and the spot silver price has risen by 5%, continuing the crazy trend of the past week. The most extreme trading sentiment, represented by Bitcoin, has also risen for the fifth consecutive trading day, returning to above $93,000.
