Last week, coinciding with the New Year holiday, China's domestic potash market operated smoothly overall without significant fluctuations. Potassium chloride prices remained firm at elevated levels, supported by tight supply and steadily recovering demand. Entering winter, domestic potash producers gradually entered maintenance periods, limiting capacity utilization and further reducing output. Compounded by national reserve inspections and the completion of annual tasks, domestically produced potash supplies remained tight. The official delivered price for 60% powdered crystalline potassium chloride in Qinghai stood at CNY3,100 per ton, while market prices circulated between 3,150 and CNY3,200 per ton.
Port inventories of imported potash remain between 2.4 and 2.45 million tons. Reports indicate that state reserve inspections and the completion of annual tasks have led to insufficient available supplies of both imported and domestic potash. However, industry insiders believe that after the New Year holiday, supply conditions will improve, putting pressure on potash fertilizer prices. Port prices for 62% white potash range from CNY3,150 to 3,500, with the lower end serving as a reference price (currently unavailable) and the higher end seeing sluggish transactions. Port prices for 60% large red granular potash range from CNY3,300 to 3,400 , where the lower end is the reference price and the higher end represents quotes for small-packaged products, with ton-bag products priced slightly lower. Border trade arrivals at Manzhouli Port are gradually increasing, but overall supply remains tight, failing to effectively alleviate pressure on the mainstream market. Border trade 62% white potash prices range from CNY3150 to 3350, with the lower end serving as a reference price. Higher-end prices see only limited transactions, while bulk order pricing is negotiable.
Last week, though potassium sulfate prices remained stable, pressure persisted. High industry-wide costs left most processed potassium sulfate producers operating at a loss. Processing plant utilization rates hovered around 45%, with earlier inventory pressures easing somewhat. Ex-factory prices for 52% fully water-soluble granular potassium sulfate stood at approximately CNY3,950 , with moderate sales and significant cost pressures. Resource-based potassium sulfate plants maintained good operating conditions with stable capacity utilization. The delivered price for 50% powdered potassium sulfate stood at around 3,550 yuan, holding steady.
Overall, the potash fertilizer market still has room for terminal demand growth, and the tight supply situation is unlikely to fundamentally change in the short term, providing support for prices. At the same time, policy regulatory pressure cannot be ignored. As supply gradually improves, prices will face some downward pressure. Industry insiders believe that in the short term, potash fertilizer prices are likely to remain stable with limited fluctuations.
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