Price trend:

According to SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, as of December 31st, the average price of domestic hot rolled sheet and coil steel was 3,323.33 RMB/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 0.101%; the average price of domestic cold rolled steel sheet was 3,872.5 RMB/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.173%. The price difference between cold rolled and hot rolled products was approximately 550 RMB/ton.

Policy supported and domestic demand recovered

According to statistics from the China Construction Machinery Association on major excavator manufacturers, 20,027 excavators of various types were sold in November 2025, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%. Of these, 9,842 units were sold domestically, a year-on-year increase of 9.11%; and 10,185 units were exported, a year-on-year increase of 18.8%. From January to November 2025, a total of 212,162 excavators were sold, a year-on-year increase of 16.7%; of which 108,187 units were sold domestically, a year-on-year increase of 18.6%; and 103,975 units were exported, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%. In November 2025, 19 electric excavators were sold (5 units under 6 tons, 2 units between 6 and 10 tons, 1 unit between 10 and 18.5 tons, and 11 units between 18.5 and 28.5 tons).

In November 2025, national passenger car retail sales reached 2.225 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.1%. Of this total, new energy vehicle retail sales reached 1.32 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.2% and a month-on-month increase of 3.0%. In November 2025, the passenger car intelligence index reached 37.7, a significant increase compared to the previous month. The three core sub-indices all showed upward trends, indicating strong momentum in the industry's intelligent development. Specifically, the intelligent cockpit index was 40.0, a month-on-month increase of 1.8 units, showing a significant increase; the intelligent driving index reached 41.2, an increase of 1.6 units month-on-month, demonstrating a significant upward trend; and the external intelligence index was 21.5, a month-on-month increase of 2.1 units, continuing its previous upward trend.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in November 2025, air conditioner production was 15.026 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 23.4%; refrigerator production was 9.442 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%; and color TV production was 17.449 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 5%. Air conditioner sales were 10.492 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 31.8%, of which domestic sales were 4.052 million units (-39.8%) and exports were 6.44 million units (-25.6%). Regarding color TV sales data, a report by Lotu Technology indicated that China's TV shipments in November 2025 were 3.22 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 15.7%.

Prices for hot rolled steel strips were showing a divergent trend

In 2025, the overall national market for hot rolled steel sheets and coils exhibited a weak and volatile trend. According to data monitoring, as of December 24th, the average price of 4.75mm hot- rolled steel sheets and coils nationwide was 3,295 RMB/ton, a decrease of 214 RMB/ton compared to the same period last year, representing a decline of 6.09%. The market price center had shifted significantly downwards. Meanwhile, the price difference between the peak and trough prices throughout the year was only 320 RMB/ton, a significant reduction of 738 RMB/ton compared to the same period last year, indicating a noticeable narrowing of price fluctuations. This suggested that the market's bullish and bearish forces were becoming more balanced, the influence of capital on hot rolled steel spot prices wais decreasing, and market sentiment was leaning towards caution. On the other hand, it also reflected the increasingly prominent characteristic of the industry where "off-season was not weak, and peak season was not strong," with traditional seasonal supply and demand fluctuations being weakened. Upstream and downstream enterprises were mainly purchasing on demand, further suppressing price volatility.

Regarding inventory

According to Mysteel statistics, as of November 20th, the total inventory of hote rolled strip steel in major markets across China was 724,300 tons, a decrease of 59,800 tons compared to the previous week, a decrease of 228,400 tons compared to the same period last month, and an increase of 344,100 tons compared to the same period last year. The inventory of hot rolled strip steel in Tangshan was 361,900 tons, a decrease of 44,800 tons week-on-week, a decrease of 207,300 tons month-on-month, and an increase of 125,100 tons year-on-year.

Downstream demand

As of December 19th, the supply of hot rolled coil across China had contracted significantly, with weekly production falling to 2.9191 million tons, a decrease of 5.4% week-on-week and 152,300 tons year-on-year, reaching its lowest level since November 2022. The core driving factor waws the continued pressure on steel mill profits, leading to increased willingness among companies to carry out maintenance, which in turn caused the capacity utilization rate of hot rolled coil production lines to fall by 4.29 percentage points week-on-week to 74.58%. However, the supply pressure from newly added capacity and the shift from rebar production had not yet been fully alleviated, and regional supply differences were prominent, with resources in East and North China remaining relatively abundant. Overall, the supply side remained relatively loose.

Market Forecast:

Regarding exports, the Chinese hot rolled sheet and coil export market in 2025 exhibited stable volume, weak prices, pressure on profitability, and structural differentiation. Entering December, the market saw a significant increase in short-term speculative activity due to the combined effects of anticipated implementation of export license policies and the traditional off-season for overseas demand. From a medium- and long-term perspective, the industry will accelerate its transformation towards higher-end products and greater compliance with regulations.

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