Price trend:
According to the commodity price analysis system of SunSirs, as of the end of December, the spot price of PTA in East China was 5,082 RMB/ton, an increase of 8.07% compared to the beginning of the month. Rising costs, reduced operating rates due to plant maintenance, high operating rates in the polyester industry, and a significant rebound in exports due to India's cancellation of BIS certification led to PTA prices reaching their highest point in the second half of the year. However, weak end-user demand limited the upward potential.
Market Analysis
Despite the decline in average monthly crude oil prices, PX prices rose against the trend, with PX prices continuing to increase in December, and the average monthly price rising by more than 3% compared to the previous month. This was mainly supported by improved supply and demand expectations, the impending maintenance of a reforming unit in East China, and the announcement of maintenance schedules for Asian PX plants next year, further tightening supply expectations. No new PX capacity is expected to come online in the first three quarters of 2026, meaning supply will remain tight, supporting high prices.
Regarding supply, low processing fees dampened factories' enthusiasm for production, and the PTA operating rate remained around 73% in December. Several plants, including Zhuhai BP, Dushan Energy, and Yisheng Ningbo, underwent maintenance, with some units gradually restarting in the latter half of the month. No new PTA capacity is expected in 2026, marking a period of no new capacity additions in the industry. PTA social inventory in December was approximately 2.15 million tons, with an estimated inventory reduction of about 200,000 tons.
In terms of exports, performance was outstanding, with PTA exports reaching 358,900 tons in November, a 61.26% increase compared to the previous month. This was mainly due to the policy benefits from the lifting of the Indian BIS certification requirements. Previously, due to the restrictions imposed by the Indian BIS certification, China's PTA exports to India decreased by 370,000 tons year-on-year from January to October 2025. However, after the policy was relaxed in November, exports recovered rapidly.
Downstream polyester production capacity utilization reached nearly 87% by the end of December, providing strong demand support for PTA. However, weak end-user demand has led to differentiation within the industry. Major polyester filament manufacturers WEre implementing a new round of self-imposed production cuts, with a 10% reduction in POY production and a continuation of the previous 15% reduction in FDY production. As raw material prices surged, leading to theoretical production losses for polyester products, factories may implement further production cuts. With end-user demand entering its traditional off-season and orders continuing to weaken, it is expected that this negative feedback from the demand side will impact the market from the bottom up.
Market Outlook
According to analysts at SunSirs', positive factors are expected to continue in the short term, with rising PX prices and a tight supply situation providing strong cost support for PTA. The PTA and polyester filament industries are actively implementing measures to combat overcapacity, with factories voluntarily reducing or halting production, improving the industry's supply and demand balance. India's cancellation of BIS certification has restored China's PTA export channels, leading to a significant increase in export volume and alleviating domestic supply pressure. PTA prices are highly likely to surge, potentially surpassing the 2025 high point. However, the weaving industry is entering its traditional off-season with insufficient orders, thus limiting the potential for further PTA price increases.
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