Review of the wire rod and rebar prices trends in 2025
According to data from SunSirs, in 2025, the prices of rebar and wire rod fluctuated downwards, showing an overall weakening trend. The price of rebar started at 3,350 RMB/ton at the beginning of the year and fell to 3,237.34 RMB/ton by the end of the year, a decrease of 3.36%. The price of wire rod started at 3,555 RMB/ton at the beginning of the year and fell to 3,497.5 RMB/ton by the end of the year, a decrease of 1.62%.
In 2025, steel prices experienced four distinct trend-based price movements:
In 2025, the steel industry exhibited a distinct pattern of "strong performance in the first half, weaker performance in the second half, and significant differentiation across stages." In the first quarter, infrastructure investment provided support, stabilizing the market. In the second and third quarters, although the industry was temporarily impacted by external tariff disputes, market sentiment improved as Sino-US trade friction entered a controlled phase, coupled with domestic policies aimed at curbing excessive competition and promoting a unified national market. Steel prices rebounded significantly. Falling coal prices and stronger-than-expected export growth supported stable industry operations, and leading companies saw a significant recovery in profitability. However, in the fourth quarter, the deep adjustment in the real estate sector led to weak end-user demand and inventory accumulation, putting renewed pressure on industry profits, with major product categories falling into losses. Looking ahead, the industry needs to manage risks while continuously promoting structural optimization and green transformation to adapt to the new normal of changing demand structures.
Supply side:
It is expected that crude steel production will continue to be subject to control policies in 2026, and rebar production may decrease slightly by 1-3% year-on-year. With the advancement of the "dual carbon" goals, some high-energy-consuming and high-emission production capacities will be further restricted; production capacity is mainly concentrated in North China, and environmental protection-related production restrictions may be tightened periodically. Meanwhile, the proportion of electric arc furnace steel production capacity is expected to increase to 20-22%, increasing market adjustment flexibility.
Looking ahead to 2026, under the "dual carbon" goals and capacity control policies, the supply side of wire rod and rebar will continue to undergo structural adjustments. Crude steel production is expected to remain stable or slightly decrease, while environmental protection-related production restrictions will lead to periodic fluctuations in supply in North China and other regions. The increase in the proportion of electric furnace steel will enhance market adjustment flexibility, while the continued high costs of key raw materials such as iron ore and coke will continue to squeeze steel mills' profit margins, accelerating internal industry transformation.
Regarding inventory:
The inventory side will reflect a new balance in the supply and demand dynamics. Social inventories are expected to exhibit a seasonal pattern of "high in the first half of the year and low in the second half," accumulating at the beginning of the year before gradually falling back to a reasonable range. Steel mills will maintain low to medium inventory levels through refined inventory management, enhancing their ability to proactively adjust production. Regional differentiation will become more pronounced, with inventory pressure relatively manageable in East and South China, while destocking cycles may be longer in North and Southwest China, reflecting differences in regional fundamentals.
Regarding demand:
Looking ahead to 2026, the demand side is expected to show a pattern of "real estate bottoming out, infrastructure taking over, and diversified sectors providing supplementary support." The decline in real estate investment is expected to narrow, with the "three major projects" becoming key growth drivers, offsetting the weakness in traditional commercial housing demand. Infrastructure investment is expected to maintain medium-speed growth, with water conservancy, transportation, and projects in central and western China providing solid support. At the same time, livelihood projects such as urban renewal and pipeline network upgrades will contribute to sustained incremental demand.
At the macro level, the situation presents a pattern of "domestic support, external pressure, and industry transformation." Domestic fiscal and monetary policies are working in tandem, focusing on supporting "three major projects" and infrastructure projects to stabilize domestic demand. The external environment is complex, with a global economic slowdown and trade uncertainties potentially constraining exports. Industry policies continue to promote green transformation and mergers and acquisitions, which, while increasing costs for some companies, will promote industrial structure optimization and increased concentration.
Market Outlook
Overall, 2026 will likely be another year of weak demand and high costs for the industrial sector. While policy measures have already eased controls on the real estate sector, the recovery of real estate demand depends more on residents' savings capacity and long-term income expectations. Considering the supply and demand dynamics and the macroeconomic environment, it is expected that wire rod and rebar prices in 2026 will show a "low in the first half, high in the second half, and range-bound fluctuation" trend. The average price for the year is likely to be roughly the same as in 2025 or slightly higher by 2-4%.
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