Price trend:

In 2025, the domestic bisphenol A (BPA) market was characterized by weak supply and demand, and insufficient cost support, with a volatile downward trend in prices being the main feature.  Throughout 2025, the domestic BPA market showed a fluctuating downward trend, with only a temporary rebound at the end of the year. On January 1st, the BPA market price was 9,537 RMB/ton, and as of December 29th, SunSirs' benchmark price for BPA was 7,604.00 RMB/ton, a decrease of over 20% compared to the beginning of the year. The lowest price reached 7,090 RMB/ton during the year, reflecting the core problems of supply-demand imbalance and insufficient cost support in the industry.

Amidst excess capacity, a temporary contraction was occurring, but the overall loose supply situation remained unchanged.

In 2025, the industry's operating rate remained at a relatively high level of around 80%, resulting in an overall loose market supply due to excess capacity. Although there was a temporary supply contraction at the end of the year (December), with Changchun Chemical and Nantong Xingchen reducing their operating rates to 50-60%, Nanya Plastics (Ningbo)'s Phase I plant undergoing maintenance shutdowns, and Shandong Fuyu Petrochemical's 180,000 tons/year plant shut down until January 2026, leading to a reduction in market supply of approximately 15% compared to normal levels and a temporary price rebound of 5.93%, this contraction was due to short-term maintenance disruptions and did not alter the core pattern of overall loose supply throughout the year.

Weak demand downstream was dragging down essential orders, and temporary restocking was unlikely to reverse the downward trend.

The weak performance of two major downstream industries constituted the core constraint on demand in 2025. On the one hand, the PC industry was affected by weak exports of electronic appliances and sluggish demand for traditional home appliances, resulting in an annual operating rate of less than 75%. Although the lightweighting of new energy vehicles and the construction of 5G base stations had brought some growth in demand for high-end PCs, this was insufficient to offset the overall demand gap. On the other hand, the epoxy resin industry faced a double impact from shrinking demand in the traditional coatings sector (whose share decreased from 61% to 39%) and the emergence of bio-based alternative materials. Growth in high-end fields such as wind power and electronic packaging cannot compensate for the decline in traditional markets. Throughout the year, downstream companies generally adopted a low-inventory strategy, with only a temporary surge in orders at the end of the year due to rush orders, creating a short-term demand pulse. However, terminal consumption did not keep pace, and the market quickly returned to weakness after the orders were fulfilled, confirming the core characteristic of "weak demand reality."

Raw material prices hit a five-year low, rendering the cost-support logic invalid.

The volatile and generally weak trend in the raw materials market in 2025 led to a loss of cost support. Fluctuating and declining upstream crude oil prices, coupled with a loose supply-demand balance in the benzene market, drove down the prices of phenol and acetone, resulting in an average annual price decrease of over 10% year-on-year. Although the coal-to-olefins route offers a 15%-20% cost advantage compared to the petroleum-based route, providing some cost buffer for domestic enterprises, the overall weakness in raw materials was transmitted to the bisphenol A segment, leaving companies without a basis for price increases and further reinforcing the downward price trend.

Looking ahead to 2026, on the supply side, the concentrated release of new production capacity will further increase supply pressure. Of the 3.8 million tons of global bisphenol A capacity under construction in 2025, 73% wa located in China. Key projects such as Yantai Wanhua (600,000 tons/year) and Fujian Gulei (500,000 tons/year) are expected to gradually come online in 2026, pushing domestic capacity to over 7 million tons. With the restart of maintenance-related shutdowns at facilities such as Shandong Fuyu Petrochemical in January 2026, market supply will gradually recover, and the supply-demand imbalance is expected to improve. However, the concentrated release of new capacity will further intensify industry competition. The industry operating rate is expected to fall to around 75% in 2026, maintaining a loose supply situation. At the same time, leading companies, leveraging technological advantages (such as ion liquid catalyst technology which reduces energy consumption per ton by 19%) and cost advantages, will further squeeze the market share of smaller producers, leading to increased industry concentration.

On the demand side, the performance of bisphenol A demand in 2026 will depend on the pace of macroeconomic recovery and the expansion speed of downstream high-end sectors. In the short term, after the year-end restocking demand subsides, demand in the first quarter of 2026 may return to weakness; in the medium term, if real estate policies are relaxed and electronics and electrical appliance exports recover, it will drive a marginal improvement in demand for epoxy resins and traditional PC. In the long term, high-end sectors remain the core driving force for demand growth: lightweighting of new energy vehicles is driving the growth of modified PC demand, expected to increase by 120,000 tons annually; 5G base station construction is driving a surge in demand for low-dielectric constant PC materials; and the application of medical-grade PC in areas such as disposable blood oxygen sensors is growing at a rate of 23%. In addition, demand expansion in emerging markets such as Southeast Asia may provide some support for domestic bisphenol A exports.

Market Outlook

According to SunSirs, the core conflict in the bisphenol A market in 2026 will still be the interplay between "overcapacity and insufficient demand recovery." The market is likely to show a "weak first, then stable, with fluctuating adjustments" trend: In the first quarter, prices may return to low levels due to supply recovery and weak demand; in the second and third quarters, if downstream demand improves marginally, it may drive a temporary price rebound; in the fourth quarter, short-term market fluctuations may occur due to year-end order replenishment and raw material price volatility. The average annual price may be slightly lower than in 2025, with a focus on fluctuations in the 7,000-8,000 RMB/ton range. Three key factors need to be closely monitored: firstly, the faster-than-expected progress of new capacity commissioning, leading to a significant increase in supply pressure; secondly, a weaker-than-expected macroeconomic recovery and continued weak downstream demand; and thirdly, the impact of unforeseen factors such as geopolitical conflicts and stricter environmental policies on the market.

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