In December, white cardboard manufacturers repeatedly signaled price hikes, yet market demand remained limited throughout the month. Traders faced pressure to reduce inventories, and the market's momentum to follow suit weakened. In January 2026, cost rigidity and continued coordinated price hikes by mills remain positive drivers. However, uncertainty surrounds terminal consumption recovery, compounded by traders' high inventory levels awaiting digestion. With bullish and bearish factors in contention, further upward price momentum is expected to be limited.
White Cardboard Manufacturers Continue Price Hikes, Market Follow-Through Limited
White cardboard manufacturers announced December price increases in late November, planning to implement hikes of 100-200 RMB/ton. Traders initially followed suit with 50-100 RMB/ton increases at month's start, but insufficient terminal orders followed. Market trends stabilized in mid-to-late December, with some post-increase prices even retreating. December's overall market gains fell short of expectations. According to Zhuochuang Information data, as of December 24, the domestic white cardstock average price stood at 4,239 RMB/ton, representing a 0.59% increase from late November.
Raw Material Prices Fluctuate Upward, Cost Pressure Remains Significant
Raw material wood pulp prices fluctuated upward in December. As of December 24, the average cost of white cardstock increased by 1.83% compared to the same period last month, while the average gross profit margin declined by 0.78 percentage points. News of production cuts at overseas pulp mills, sustained increases in hardwood pulp export prices, and the product's financial attributes collectively bolstered market sentiment, driving pulp price movements. Rising production costs eroded corporate profits, strengthening paper mills' willingness to raise prices.
Limited Market Demand Release Insufficient to Sustain Effective Price Increases
December market demand exhibited characteristics of “overall flatness and structural divergence,” with limited overall release. Rigid demand sectors like pharmaceuticals and daily consumer goods remained stable. New Year's Day and e-commerce packaging-related demand saw some recovery, but consumers remained cautious about purchasing durable goods and high-end gifts, indirectly affecting the strength of white cardboard demand release. Additionally, due to the relatively late timing of this year's Spring Festival, market orders for Spring Festival-related products experienced some delay. According to Information, December market demand may only see a 0.59% month-on-month increase. Overall, market orders remain scattered, with downstream packaging enterprises lacking large-scale centralized procurement. This weak demand side struggles to support effective price increases.
Traders Focus on Inventory Reduction; Price Hikes Become Cautious
Traders' mindset and actions directly impact price transmission efficiency. Market prices rose for three consecutive months from September to November. Driven by paper mills' sustained price hikes, traders' purchasing enthusiasm increased. After continuous restocking, some inventory levels reached relatively high positions. Therefore, entering December, despite tentative price hikes at month's start amid expectations of rising procurement costs, most traders shifted to volume-boosting and inventory reduction strategies due to weak demand, high stock levels, and sales targets. Price increases have become more cautious. Affected by high trader inventories and slow digestion, social inventory is projected to increase by 2.33% month-on-month in December.
Bullish and Bearish Factors in Tug-of-War; Limited Upside Potential for Pre-Spring Festival Prices
Rigid costs and paper mills' price hikes provide clear support for the market floor. Currently, white cardboard's rebound remains limited, with prices still below year-start levels. Amid ongoing expectations for raw material price increases and sustained pressure on white cardboard profitability, paper mills have strengthened their consensus on maintaining reasonable profit margins. Major enterprises continue announcing 200 RMB/ton price hikes effective January 2026, proactively guiding market expectations through price adjustments. Concurrently, companies may alleviate domestic supply-demand pressures through product mix optimization, export promotion, and scheduled maintenance. Currently, select large-scale enterprises in South China plan maintenance from January 20-30, all contributing positive signals to market dynamics.
Market demand is expected to rebound, though order continuity may prove challenging. Typically, one to two months before the Spring Festival, rush orders drive robust demand. Considering this year's holiday timing and December's weaker-than-expected order recovery, January 2026 demand may see concentrated release. However, the recovery in consumer spending remains uncertain. With residents adopting more rational consumption habits and end-users potentially closing early due to cost-cutting and efficiency improvements, market activity may be dampened. For traders, the limited trading days before the holiday necessitate inventory control to mitigate post-holiday risks, reducing overall stockpiling motivation. These factors will constrain market transaction activity and limit the efficiency of price increases passed down from paper mills to downstream buyers.
White cardstock prices in January 2026 may rise due to cost support and coordinated price hikes by mills. However, the increase will be constrained by terminal demand elasticity. Low-end prices are projected to rise by approximately RMB 50/ton, while mid-to-high-end prices will see limited fluctuation. Overall, prices will exhibit a gradual, narrow upward trend, with the mainstream market range likely between RMB 4,060-4,260/ton.
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