In 2025, the price of PET bottle chips showed obvious periodic fluctuations, with an overall operating range of 5,388-6,447 RMB/ton and a fluctuation range of 19.7% within the year.
1.Core characteristics of the market in 2025: wide fluctuations and intense supply-demand competition
First quarter: High level firm
The market has started steadily, with a transaction price range of 6,260-6,520 RMB/ton for orders from January to March. At the beginning of the year, with cost support and relatively stable supply and demand, the price remained at a high level of 6,380-6,430 RMB/ton.
Second quarter: "roller coaster" market trend
The market has fluctuated sharply this quarter. In early April, prices experienced a sharp drop of nearly a thousand points, but later regained all lost ground in June due to factors such as concentrated production cuts in the industry. In May, the price first rose and then fell, with an average price of 6,077 RMB/ton at the end of the month. In the second half of the month, it hit the 6,000 RMB/ton mark due to the decline in crude oil prices.
Third quarter: Shift in focus
The market is showing a weak downward trend. As of September 30th, the average price of PET has fallen to 5,870 RMB/ton, a decrease of 3.50% from 6,067 RMB/ton in early July, reflecting the impact of supply pressure and weak domestic demand.
Fourth quarter: Cost driven rebound
Supported by strong raw material costs, the market rebounded at the end of the year. On December 22-23, there was a rapid rise, and on the 26th, the average spot price in East China closed at 6,080 RMB/ton, with a weekly increase of 6.29%, marking a strong end to the year.
2.Analysis of Key Factors Influencing the Market Situation
Cost driven (highly sensitive)
PTA and ethylene glycol are the main raw materials, with PTA accounting for approximately 64% of the cost.
The correlation coefficient between bottle price and PTA price is as high as 0.9, indicating rapid cost transmission.
Supply side: The tug of war between expansion and contraction
The supply pattern in 2025 is complex:
Expansion Trend: Approximately 3.1 million tons of new production capacity were added throughout the year, with a growth rate of 16%, accounting for half of the total new PET production capacity. Mainly from the production of enterprises such as Yizheng Chemical Fiber, Sanfangxiang, and Fuhai Group.
Production reduction trend: In response to potential overcapacity, the industry has launched a large-scale self regulatory production reduction since May. Top enterprises such as Wankai, China Resources, Sanfangxiang, and Yisheng reduced their production capacity by about 3.36 million tons, accounting for 16.3% of the total production capacity at that time, which pushed the industry's operating rate from a high of nearly 90% to around 75%. The coexistence of capacity expansion and active contraction has become the key to stabilizing the market.
Demand side: weak internally and strong externally, structural changes
Weak domestic demand: From January to October, the production of soft drinks decreased by 5.7% year-on-year, but the consumption of bottled tablets increased by 6.5%, reflecting an increase in unit packaging usage or product upgrades.
Strong exports: the biggest highlight. From January to December, the cumulative export volume was 5.848 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 28.5%, effectively offsetting the insufficient domestic demand.
Emerging applications: The demand for hot filled tea beverages, dairy product packaging, and other fields is rapidly growing (with a growth rate of 6% -9%), becoming a new growth point.
Policy side: "Anti internal competition" and industry self-discipline
The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology guides the industry to curb "internal competition", promote the elimination of outdated production capacity and control production and reduce output.
The industry self-discipline mechanism has shown initial results: when the processing gap drops to a low of 300 RMB/ton, collective production reduction drives the processing gap back to above 550 RMB/ton.
The policy is expected to improve the long-term supply and demand structure, announcing the end of the high-speed expansion phase of production capacity (expected to significantly slow down to 7.5% in the future).
3.Market outlook for the first quarter of 2026:
The price range under cost support is expected to fluctuate between 6,000-6,400 RMB/ton, with a shift in focus from the fourth quarter of 2025.
Main logic:
Supporting factors: Cost side (PTA/ethylene glycol) is expected to fluctuate at a high level; Maintain resilience in export demand; Seasonal stocking before and after the Spring Festival.
Restrictive factors: Supply pressure brought by the commissioning of new facilities such as CR Zhuhai and Shandong Fuhai; The absolute inventory level in China is still relatively high; The recovery of domestic demand is limited.
Processing fee: It is expected to remain at a historically low level of 300-500 RMB/ton, reflecting that industry competition remains fierce.
summary
In 2025, the PET bottle chip market will experience severe fluctuations under the multiple forces of capacity expansion, demand differentiation, and policy intervention. The industry balances supply and demand and repairs profits through proactive production reduction and self-discipline. Looking ahead to early 2026, the market will operate between strong cost support and loose supply and demand patterns, with limited upward space for prices, and is expected to be dominated by range fluctuations. The sustainability of export performance and industry self-discipline will be key observational variables in the future.
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