According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, China's cotton yarn exports totaled 25,200 metric tons in November, marking a month-on-month decrease of 2.8% and a year-on-year decline of 8.09%. Although both the month-on-month and year-on-year declines narrowed significantly compared to the previous two months, exports remain in a downward trend. This contrasts sharply with the situation in November, where China's cotton product exports reached 646,400 metric tons, up 9.84% year-on-year, a 6.32% month-on-month increase, and November's cotton fabric exports showing gains in both volume (up 3.60% month-on-month, 8.70% year-on-year) and price. The situation stands in stark contrast to China's cotton yarn imports in November, which surged by 20.28% year-on-year.

Industry consensus on the reasons for November's continued month-on-month and year-on-year declines in cotton yarn exports centers on the following factors:

First, accelerated fulfillment of Christmas orders in October-November by Western countries like Europe and the US prompted textile and apparel enterprises in Southeast Asia and elsewhere to shift replenishment orders toward downstream products like cotton fabrics, textiles, and garments to ensure timely shipment and delivery.

Second, Pakistan imposed an 18% tariff on imported cotton, cotton yarn, and cotton fabrics effective July 1, 2025 (significantly weakening exports of medium-to-high count and high-spec cotton yarn to the Pakistani market). Additionally, the negative feedback intensified as the U.S. pressured Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, and other countries to cooperate in combating China's transshipment trade via Vietnam, while imposing tariffs to pressure Southeast Asian nations to reduce supply chain dependence on China.

Third, statistics indicate that in recent months, the United States and the European Union have tightened traceability requirements for cotton products and apparel originating from Vietnam and China. Consequently, some Vietnamese textile and apparel enterprises have been compelled to reduce imports of Chinese cotton yarn. Although the total value of goods inspected by U.S. Customs under the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act declined month-on-month in October and November, the proportion of textile and apparel products subject to inspection continued to rise, with Chinese and Vietnamese products being the primary targets.

Fourth, the sustained and significant appreciation of the renminbi against the U.S. dollar since October has disadvantaged exports of low-margin products like cotton yarn. Against the backdrop of a modest depreciation of the dollar since mid-October, the renminbi has appreciated substantially. This asymmetric appreciation has sparked market speculation about “year-end foreign exchange settlements.” In November, the RMB's spot exchange rate against the USD appreciated by nearly 0.48% cumulatively. On November 27, the spot rate reached 7.0738 during intraday trading, marking a one-year high since mid-October 2024.

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