At the recently held 2025 International Energy Development Summit, the “Report on the Achievements of China's Oil and Gas Industry During the 14th Five-Year Plan Period” (hereinafter referred to as the “Report”) was released. The Report indicates that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China's cumulative proven geological reserves increased by 7 billion tons of oil and 7 trillion cubic meters of natural gas, representing approximately 43% and 40% growth respectively compared to the 13th Five-Year Plan period. Oil and gas production reached historic highs.

Currently, the global energy landscape is undergoing profound restructuring. As a low-carbon, efficient clean energy source, natural gas is not only a key driver of economic and social development but also a vital pillar for advancing energy transition and accelerating the construction of a new energy system.

Wu Mouyuan, Vice President of the Economic and Technical Research Institute of CNPC, stated that China's oil production is projected to reach 215 million to 216 million tons this year. Natural gas achieved significant growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with annual production increasing by approximately 13 billion cubic meters. Steady and robust development is expected to continue during the 15th Five-Year Plan period.

Duan Zhaofang, Director of the Natural Gas Market Research Institute at CNPC Economic and Technical Research Institute, noted that since 2000, China's natural gas market has entered a phase of rapid development, with annual consumption growth averaging around 13% and accounting for approximately 9% of primary energy consumption. Based on new characteristics and changes in this year's natural gas market, China's natural gas consumption has entered a brief adjustment period, with a return to relatively rapid growth expected next year. Concurrently, domestically produced gas will play a more prominent role. The nation continues to vigorously advance exploration and development, with domestic gas production projected to maintain rapid growth during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. Tight gas, shale gas, and coalbed methane are expected to be the primary sources of future growth.

The forum also released the 2060 World and China Energy Outlook Report (2025 Edition), projecting that under the baseline scenario, driven by economic development and industrial upgrading, China's primary energy demand will peak at 5 billion tons of oil equivalent (approximately 7.1 billion tons of standard coal) in 2035, representing an increase of about 20% compared to 2025. By 2060, China's energy demand will remain above 4.5 billion tons of oil equivalent (approximately 6.4 billion tons of standard coal).

Oil demand will accelerate its shift toward chemical products and new materials manufacturing. By 2050, oil consumption for chemical production will peak at 290 million tons, accounting for over 50% of total oil demand. Natural gas will play a pivotal role in supporting the new power system, with demand expected to plateau between 2035 and 2040 at 620 to 650 billion cubic meters.

Daniel Yergin, Vice Chairman of S&P Global, stated that oil and natural gas will continue to play a significant role for an extended period. Amid the energy transition, global energy demand continues to grow. Artificial intelligence's electricity requirements will drive rapid development in natural gas power generation and nuclear energy. The energy transition is evolving from energy-intensive to mineral-intensive, while also facing challenges such as long development cycles for critical minerals and complex political factors.

"Over the next five years, fossil fuels and renewable energy will develop in tandem, achieving healthy, stable, and highly resilient growth across the entire energy system. Clean energy will maintain rapid growth momentum. Over 90% of renewable energy will need to be integrated through electricity, making the electrification of end-use energy a crucial direction for future transformation," said Wu Mouyuan.

Projections indicate that over the next decade, China's energy structure will exhibit a pattern of “coal reduction, oil and gas stabilization, and non-fossil energy growth.” By 2035, a “three-pillar” structure will gradually take shape. By 2060, fossil fuels, hydropower and nuclear power, wind power, and solar power will account for 23%, 19%, 25%, and 30% of China's energy mix, respectively.

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