In July this year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture projected West Africa's cotton production for the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons at 4.612 million bales and 4.83 million bales, respectively. These estimates were subsequently revised downward to 4.248 million bales and 4.29 million bales, representing a combined reduction of 900,000 bales (approximately 200,000 metric tons) across both seasons.

This season, the number of major global exporting countries (or regions) remains limited. Observing production changes over recent months, global exports have already decreased by over 1 million bales, necessitating supplementation from other regions (primarily the United States and/or Brazil).

Notably, Brazil's ABRAPA recently projected the country's 2025/26 cotton production (corresponding to USDA's 2026/27 crop year) at 3.83 million metric tons, a year-on-year decrease of 250,000 metric tons. According to USDA forecasts, Australia's 2025/26 cotton output is expected to reach 980,000 metric tons, down 240,000 metric tons from the previous year. Combined production declines in these two major producers are projected to total nearly 500,000 metric tons.

For the 2025/26 season, U.S. cotton production is projected at 3.1 million metric tons, showing no significant year-on-year decrease. However, combined production from the three exporting regions—West Africa, Australia, and Brazil—is expected to decline by approximately 700,000 metric tons in 2026. As global cotton exports increasingly concentrate in a limited number of countries, market system vulnerabilities intensify. Should major production issues arise again, this could trigger excessive market reactions.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on December 26th, the benchmark price for cotton, according to SunSirs, was 15286.83 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.70% compared to the beginning of the month (14885.50 RMB /ton).

Application of SunSirs Benchmark Pricing：

Traders can price spot and contract transactions based on the pricing principle of agreed markup and pricing formula (Transaction price=SunSirs price + Markup).

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@SunSirs.com.