Recently, the ammonium chloride market has maintained firm pricing overall, supported by pending orders, stable cost foundations, and sustained downstream demand, fostering a relatively positive market sentiment. However, the market is not entirely positive. Bearish factors such as limited demand growth, expectations of demand contraction in some regions, and ample supply are gradually weakening the momentum for ammonium chloride price increases, moderating the upward trend.
The underlying reasons for this ammonium chloride price surge can be summarized as follows: Firstly, as agricultural production advances, compound fertilizer enterprises have increased their operating rates. The production of high-nitrogen fertilizers has entered a critical phase, significantly boosting the phased restocking demand for ammonium chloride. This shift in demand directly stimulated downstream enterprises' procurement enthusiasm, increased market transaction activity, and consequently drove prices upward. Second, the release of winter fertilizer stockpiling demand has injected strong momentum into the ammonium chloride market. Downstream enterprises have intensified their procurement of ammonium chloride to meet winter agricultural production needs, with this concentrated purchasing behavior providing robust support for market prices. Third, rising overall costs across the fertilizer industry chain have placed significant pressure on ammonium chloride producers. To alleviate this pressure, companies have passed on part of the increased costs to the market, thereby providing a floor for ammonium chloride prices and ensuring stability within a certain range.
Regarding market prices, ammonium chloride has risen by 50 RMB/ton compared to earlier periods, with some regions experiencing more substantial increases. Current mainstream ex-factory quotations range from 390-450 RMB/ton, while wet ammonium chloride ex-factory prices stand at 270-310 RMB/ton, with regional variations present.
However, the market also faces notable bearish factors. Earlier, downstream manufacturers preemptively stockpiled to hedge against price volatility. This may significantly reduce actual procurement demand during the traditional winter storage period, exerting downward pressure on the market. Concurrently, ammonium chloride producers maintain operating rates around 70%, ensuring ample supply. This supply-demand dynamic limits further price appreciation, hindering sustained upward momentum. Currently, the market primarily fulfills pending orders, with new order activity subdued and price growth notably slowing. Some enterprises have even suspended order acceptance or slowed order intake, ushering the market into a temporary stabilization phase.
Overall, the ammonium chloride market is expected to operate steadily in the near term with limited price fluctuations. Market supply and demand will maintain relative equilibrium, lacking significant drivers for substantial price movements. Key factors to monitor going forward include the operating rates of compound fertilizer manufacturers, urea price trends, and the progress of winter stockpiling.
If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.
