According to China Chemical Information, ethylene oxide prices recently dropped to approximately CNY 5,800 per ton, with the 2025 annual average falling to around CNY6,500 per ton—marking the lowest level in the past 17 years. As a flagship product of China's C2 industry chain and a key downstream extension of ethylene, ethylene oxide's historic price low reflects the sector's overall weak performance.

From 2009 to 2025, China's annual ethylene oxide prices showed a sustained downward trend, peaking at ¥12,000/ton in 2010. By 2025, the cumulative decline compared to 2009 reached 46%, making it one of the products with the largest cumulative price drop in China's chemical industry.

Significant price fluctuations occurred between 2009 and 2025, with December 2025 prices hitting another historic low. Two previous record lows were recorded in March 2020 and June 2023, both around RMB 5,800/ton. However, the recent decline broke below these prior lows, indicating significantly weaker market conditions than previous years.

Ethylene oxide profit calculations can be derived using either ethylene or naphtha feedstock models, with varying industry methodologies. Based on market data and using year-end 2025 raw material prices as benchmarks, the results are as follows:

1. China's ethylene oxide industry will operate at a loss overall in 2025. Calculations using ethylene as feedstock indicate a theoretical profit loss of 9%, while naphtha-based calculations show a loss of 36%. In 2025, relatively strong naphtha feedstock prices will cause severe ethylene profit losses; however, floating losses in ethylene market prices will partially offset ethylene oxide's loss magnitude.

2. Regardless of the feedstock calculation logic, China's theoretical ethylene oxide profit margin has been on a continuous downward trend over the past few years. Under the ethylene feedstock calculation, profits peaked between 2009 and 2010, while under the naphtha feedstock calculation, the highest profit margin occurred in 2016. The specific point in the industrial chain chosen for calculation significantly impacts the fluctuation of China's theoretical ethylene oxide profit margin. Currently, most Chinese ethylene oxide production is integrated. Calculating based on naphtha feedstock may better align with market realities.

The following factors may contribute to China's ethylene oxide prices and profits hitting historic lows by 2025:

1. Explosive capacity growth causing severe supply-demand imbalance. According to incomplete statistics, China's ethylene oxide capacity exceeded 7.8 million tons by the end of 2025, representing a cumulative increase of over 23%. Major projects such as Jilin Petrochemical, Yulong Petrochemical, and Zhenhai Refining & Chemical coming online in 2025 further exacerbated the supply-demand imbalance, likely serving as a key driver behind the historic price decline.

2. The rapid contraction of China's real estate sector caused overall demand for ethylene oxide to plummet dramatically. Excluding ethylene glycol factors, the largest downstream application for ethylene oxide is polycarboxylate superplasticizer polyether monomers, accounting for approximately 43% or more of total ethylene oxide consumption and representing the largest downstream market. Second is nonionic surfactants, accounting for about 35% of total consumption. In 2025, the rapid contraction of China's real estate sector caused a sharp decline in consumption across related industries. Water-reducing agent manufacturers adopted a “just-in-time procurement” approach as the norm, with virtually no inventory hoarding. Some downstream factories halted production due to losses, resulting in leading polycarboxylic acid water-reducing agent monomer manufacturers operating at less than 40% capacity in 2025. This resulted in significantly insufficient support for ethylene oxide consumption from the water-reducing agent industry, serving as the core driver behind the rapid contraction in ethylene oxide demand.

3. High carbon tax costs are another factor squeezing corporate profits. Starting in 2025, ethylene oxide producers must achieve 85% carbon capture rates, with capture costs around 150 RMB/ton. However, most companies purchase carbon allowances from the emissions trading market at over 90 RMB/ton, increasing operational expenses and reducing margins.

4. The surfactant industry is also experiencing rapid contraction. Weakness in the textile and daily chemical sectors has driven down demand for nonionic surfactants. By 2025, demand from these industries is projected to shrink by 15%–18%. Since nonionic surfactants account for approximately 35% of ethylene oxide's downstream applications, this directly contributes to reduced ethylene oxide consumption. Additionally, poor performance in sectors like pharmaceutical intermediates and polyurethanes by 2025 will further reduce demand for nonionic surfactants, thereby compressing ethylene oxide demand.

Ethylene oxide, a key representative product in China's C2 industry chain, exhibits high correlation with the real estate sector. Dragged down by this sector, its price has fallen below historical lows—a trend also reflected across China's broader industry.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on December 17th, the benchmark price of ethylene oxide according to SunSirs was 5800.00 RMB/ton, a decrease of 3.33% compared to the beginning of the month (6000.00 RMB/ton).

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