According to data from the National Energy Administration, China's crude oil production is expected to reach 215 million tons by 2025, setting a new historical high; The LNG production can reach 260 billion cubic meters, an increase of 35% from the end of the 13th Five Year Plan.

Reason for analysis: The expected crude oil production in 2025 is 215 million tons, a historic high, with a significant increase in supply, which may lead to a decline in spot prices. Based on the data of petroleum asphalt futures (as a crude oil related product), the recent main contracts such as 2605 have a closing price of 3,001 RMB/ton and a settlement price of 2984 RMB/ton, showing a downward trend in price (up and down -23). The expected increase in supply may strengthen the downward pressure on futures and have a significant negative impact on prices.

Reason for analysis: LNG production is expected to reach 260 billion cubic meters by 2025, an increase of 35% compared to the end of the 13th Five Year Plan period, with a significant increase in supply and significant downward pressure on spot prices. Due to record high production, demand growth may not be able to match supply expansion, resulting in price pressure and significant negative impacts.

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