Price trend:

Last week, domestic and international cotton prices showed divergent trends. The domestic cotton market maintained a volatile but generally upward trend, while ICE cotton futures weakened. According to the SunSirs commodity price analysis system, as of December 8th, the spot price of 3128B grade lint cotton was 15,023 RMB/ton, a weekly increase of 0.58%. In terms of futures, as of December 8th, the settlement price of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract was 13,735 RMB/ton, a decrease of 25 RMB/ton compared to the previous Monday. International cotton prices continued to decline, with the average weekly settlement price of the ICE cotton main contract at 64.33 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.05 cents/pound compared to the average settlement price of the previous week, a decrease of 0.1%.

Market Analysis

Supply side: The latest production survey results from the National Cotton Market Monitoring System shows that the average cotton yield in China in 2025 is 161.7 kg/mu, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%; based on the monitored planted area of 45.803 million mu, the estimated total national production is 7.409 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.0%; of which Xinjiang's production is 7.047 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.2%.

New cotton production forecasts show a significant increase, and market inventories continue to rise, but the pressure from the bumper harvest has been largely absorbed. As of December 5, 2025, total commercial cotton inventory was 4.465 million tons, an increase of 285,600 tons compared to the previous week. Cotton harvesting in Xinjiang is nearing completion. Last week, the average purchase price for hand-picked cotton was 6.62 RMB/kg, a decrease of 0.6% compared to the previous week; the average weekly purchase price for machine-picked cotton was 6 RMB/kg, a decrease of 0.33%.

Demand side: Cotton yarn prices remained stable. Due to a slight increase in cotton prices, a few textile companies attempted to raise yarn prices, but downstream acceptance was low, making price increases difficult. During the week before last, the operating rate of textile companies in mainstream regions was 65.3%, a decrease of 0.31% compared to last week. Last week, inland textile companies received limited new orders, mainly small orders, leading to inventory accumulation. A small number of textile companies reduced machine operation, while Xinjiang's operating rate remained basically stable at around 90%, and inland operating rates remained at around 60%. Downstream cotton yarn companies did not face significant inventory pressure, but the lack of orders persisted.

Market Forecast:

As of November 8, with a large volume of cotton entering the market and supply continuously increasing, and despite the downstream market entering its off-season, the trading atmosphere for cotton yarn remained relatively stable. Coupled with the fact that traders and textile companies were maintaining their purchasing pace, there were few negative factors affecting the cotton market. Therefore, cotton prices are expected to continue to fluctuate and cosolidate in the short term.

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