On December 9, the average price of imported cotton arriving at Chinese ports (M Index) was 71.77 cents/lb, down 0.25 cents/lb from the 8th. The import cost (excluding port handling fees) after applying a 1% tariff was 12,345 RMB/ton, and the import cost (excluding port handling fees) after applying the sliding-scale tax was 13,494 RMB/ton. The average price of domestic 3128 cotton (B Index) was CNY 14,926/ton, up CNY 6/ton from the 8th. The factory-delivered price of Xinjiang 3128B cotton in Shandong was CNY 15,020/ton, up CNY 10/ton from the 8th. The China National Cotton Basis Index (CNCottonJ, CF2601) stood at CNY 909/ton, up CNY 5/ton from December 8th.

China Domestic Cotton Market

Feedback from several cotton spinning enterprises in Henan, Jiangsu-Zhejiang, and Shandong indicates that although Zhengzhou Cotton CF2601 contracts have consolidated within the 13,700-13,800 RMB/ton range since early December, except for stable to slightly higher ex-factory quotations for high-count pure cotton yarn (primarily driven by persistently high prices for 2025/26 Xinjiang long-staple cotton and imported Pima cotton, coupled with significantly depleted inventories of 60S and higher-count yarns at most large-scale spinning mills and traders), it remains challenging to further raise quotes for conventional medium-to-low count ring-spun yarn, air-jet yarn, and blended yarn (some spinning enterprises have raised cotton yarn prices by 100-200 RMB/ton since late November). End consumers like fabric mills show weak acceptance and absorption capacity, leading to intense bargaining between upstream and downstream players.

Surveys of large-scale cotton spinning mills in Kashgar, Aksu, and Shihezi indicate that orders for C32 and C40S high-grade cotton yarns remain steady in December, though mill profits have declined compared to November. As orders for 60S and higher-count cotton yarns and 32S/45S blended yarns accelerate their shift from inland regions to Xinjiang, spinning enterprises are experiencing improved production and sales conditions. In 2026, mainland mills will face intensifying competitive pressure from Xinjiang-produced yarn. While sales of low-to-medium count cotton yarns remain sluggish among large-scale inland spinning enterprises, demand for high-count and differentiated yarns continues to rebound. Furthermore, driven by mutual tariff reductions between China and the US, traceability orders for home textiles and apparel are gradually recovering. Thus, large mills and branded enterprises (typically benefiting from 1% tariff rates and sliding-scale tariff cotton import quotas) are experiencing significantly divergent performance compared to small cotton spinning mills and weaving factories.

A large-scale spinning enterprise in Jiangsu noted that since November, inventory accumulation rates for conventional cotton yarn have gradually increased at some small and medium-sized spinning mills. Coupled with anticipated significant cash flow demands in December and January, these mills may be accelerating efforts to recover overdue payments and shorten credit terms. Simultaneously, they are offloading cotton yarn inventory at discounted prices to clear stock and alleviate tight cash flow. While the impact on branded yarns and large mills may be limited, the effects on light textile market traders and small spinning mills remain to be seen.

International Cotton Market

According to analysis by U.S. industry institutions, U.S. cotton planting area decreased by 1.9 million acres in 2025, with a significant portion converted to corn cultivation. Currently, U.S. agricultural economists generally believe that U.S. cotton planting area will remain largely unchanged in 2026, with approximately 13% expecting 10-11 million acres, 60% forecasting 9-10 million acres (9.3 million acres in 2025), and 27% projecting below 9 million acres—meaning 87% anticipate U.S. cotton acreage under 10 million acres.

Insufficient demand and weak U.S. cotton export contracts have kept cotton prices under prolonged pressure in 2025, potentially affecting U.S. farmers with alternative cropping options. The last time U.S. cotton acreage fell below 9 million acres was in 2015, when the U.S. upland cotton farm-level price dropped to 61.30 cents per pound. Currently, the USDA projects this year's U.S. upland cotton farm-level price at 64 cents per pound.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on December 10, the benchmark price of cotton lint from SunSirs was 15,010.17 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.84% ​​compared with the beginning of the month (14,885.50 RMB/ton).

Application of SunSirs Benchmark Pricing：

Traders can price spot and contract transactions based on the pricing principle of agreed markup and pricing formula (Transaction price=SunSirs price + Markup).

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