China Nonferrous Metals News reports that since November 27, Shanghai tin prices have repeatedly broken through key psychological thresholds, hitting a three-year high. The fundamental reason lies in the persistently tightening global tin ore supply. According to public reports, the M23 armed group has severed transportation routes from the Bisie tin mine in eastern DRC to the port of Bukavu. Miner Alphamin immediately declared a force majeure situation, expected to last at least six weeks.

Earlier, Indonesian President Prabowo ordered a special campaign against illegal tin mining in late September. Notably, Bloomberg reported this move as a key initiative to strengthen natural resource oversight and curb industry violations.

Since 2024, the resumption progress of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State has consistently fallen short of market expectations. Amid multiple disruptive factors, mine-end supply has become the core driver propelling tin prices upward over the past two years. In the short term, as the Bisie mine incident in the Democratic Republic of the Congo continues to unfold, tin prices are expected to rise further to 330,000 RMB per ton.

Supply: Intensifying Mine-Side Tightness

Import data indicates China's tin concentrate imports continue to contract year-on-year. According to calculations by China Customs and Antaike, China imported 11,632 metric tons of physical tin concentrate in October 2025, equivalent to 4,570 metric tons of metal content. This represents a significant month-on-month increase of 51%, but still reflects an 8.6% year-on-year decline. In October, tin metal imports from major sources generally increased: - Tin concentrate imports from Africa: 2,255.2 tons, up 52.8% month-on-month - Tin concentrate imports from Myanmar: 722.3 tons, up 30.1% month-on-month - Tin concentrate imports from Australia: 616.9 tons, up 81.0% month-on-month imports of tin concentrate from South America reached 408.9 tons, a 56.8% increase month-on-month.

From January to October 2025, China's cumulative imports of physical tin concentrate totaled 262,000 tons, equivalent to 43,000 tons of metal content, representing a 0.3% year-on-year decrease and remaining largely stable overall.

Refined tin imports, however, experienced a significant contraction. In October, China's refined tin imports fell to 526 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 58.6% and a substantial year-on-year decline of 82.8%. In October, China primarily imported refined tin from Bolivia, Peru, and Indonesia, with import volumes of 198 tons, 175 tons, and 125 tons respectively, accounting for 94.7% of total imports.

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) holds a pivotal position in the global tin supply chain, with tin reserves estimated at approximately 450,000 tons, accounting for 10% of the world's total. In 2024, DRC tin ore production reached 22,000 to 25,000 tons, representing 7% to 8.3% of global output.

Constrained by supply limitations from Myanmar and Indonesia, China's domestic tin concentrate processing fees remained under sustained pressure. As of December 3, processing fees in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces stood at 12,000 RMB/ton and 8,000 RMB/ton respectively, hitting their lowest levels in nearly three years. The mainstream transaction price for processing fees on 40% grade tin concentrate was approximately 10,500 RMB/ton. With no significant improvement in the shortage of primary ore and recycled materials, smelters' monthly output in October remained below the average of the first three quarters.

Tin chemicals account for approximately 20% of refined tin's end-use consumption. Refined tin is primarily used in producing PVC heat stabilizers, with PVC demand highly correlated to real estate market conditions. From January to October 2025, both national commercial housing sales area and completed floor space totaled 348.61 million square meters, both showing declines. Weak real estate performance has provided limited stimulus to tin chemical demand.

In contrast, the solder sector (accounting for about 40% of consumption) showed strong performance. Solder is widely used in electronic components, consumer electronics, computers, and the automotive industry. With the semiconductor industry gradually recovering, demand in the electronics sector is expected to rebound. In the automotive sector, China's automobile production and sales both increased year-on-year from January to October.

Additionally, photovoltaic installations also drove solder demand. From January to October 2025, new PV installations reached 252.9 gigawatts, a 39.5% year-on-year increase.

Overall, despite weak demand for tin chemicals, robust solder consumption has supported stable demand for refined tin.

Inventory and Outlook

As of December 3, tin inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange stood at 6,391 tons. Although rapid price increases have led to a slight rise in inventories, current tin ore supply has tightened again. The low absolute inventory level provides strong support for prices.

In summary, the slow resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State, Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining, and transportation disruptions in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)—these three supply shocks combined have further exacerbated the global tin ore shortage. Supply shortages at the mining end remain the core driver underpinning tin prices. Technically, the main SHFE tin contract has effectively broken through the key resistance level of RMB300,000 per ton. Should supply disruptions persist, tin prices could advance toward the RMB 330,000 per ton mark.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on December 9th, the benchmark price of tin on SunSirs was 314,210.00 RMB/ton, an increase of 4.52% compared with the beginning of the month (300,610.00 RMB/ton).

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