Recent market divergence among China's major corn-producing regions has become increasingly pronounced. In Northeast China, sustained price increases have fueled growing reluctance among local farmers to sell, leading to temporary supply tightness and continued price surges. Meanwhile, in North China, high corn prices have weakened farmers' reluctance to sell, slightly accelerating the release of new grain. However, grain processors' capacity to absorb high-priced corn remains limited, resulting in a slight price correction.

As of now, the domestic corn average price stands at 2,275.16 RMB/ton, up 4.42 RMB/ton from the previous day. With downstream enterprises maintaining low inventory levels and temporary selling pressure persisting, corn prices are likely to continue fluctuating.

Currently, falling temperatures in the Northeast production area favor new grain storage. Coupled with increased direct-affiliated warehouse purchases, farmers' reluctance to sell has intensified, easing pressure on corn supply. Meanwhile, stockpiling demands from traders and processing enterprises are gradually emerging. Overall corn sales in the Northeast region have exceeded 30% of the total crop. Specifically, Liaoning has sold about 60%, Jilin around 25%, Heilongjiang over 30%, and Inner Mongolia slightly over 25%. In the North China region, moldy new-crop corn is relatively common. As the year-end approaches, farmers' willingness to sell has eased, gradually increasing market supply. The overall sales progress at the grassroots level is over 30%, with Henan exceeding 40%, Shandong at over 35%, Hebei at over 20%, and Shanxi at over 20%. It is expected that farmers will have a need for cash flow before the Spring Festival, potentially accelerating sales and increasing the supply of corn in the market.

In the livestock sector, swine farming profits remain persistently negative. With year-end slaughtering approaching, farming demand has significantly decreased, yet hog market supply remains ample. Demand from cured meat production has also failed to meet expectations, offering limited price support. Overall market conditions reflect excess supply over demand, leading to continued downward price fluctuations. Pre-holiday livestock inventories continue to underpin rigid feed demand. Coupled with improved production efficiency, downstream corn procurement remains cautious amid breeding losses. Short-term inventory-building demand lacks sufficient upward pressure on prices.

Corn prices have risen consecutively, driving up processing costs and compressing profits for deep-processing enterprises. However, ample raw material supply has maintained high operating rates, with corn consumption increasing compared to earlier periods.

Monitoring indicates that in December, the average profit margin for corn starch hedging byproducts in Jilin was -7 RMB/ton, while in Shandong it was 1 RMB/ton. With the approach of New Year's Day and the Spring Festival, concentrated production and procurement by deep-processing enterprises also supported demand.

Customs data indicates China imported 359,000 tons of corn in October 2025, a month-on-month increase of 302,500 tons. Corn imports from South America and the United States remain cheaper than domestic corn. Following the Sino-US trade agreement reached in November, further increases in corn imports are anticipated. Currently, southern ports maintain ample alternative grain supplies, and imported corn and grains are expected to exert downward pressure on the domestic corn market in the short term.

Overall, as temperatures gradually decline, storage conditions for new grain improve. Farmers at the grassroots level remain reluctant to sell, while government policy-driven purchases continue, gradually easing selling pressure on new grain. However, the livestock sector shows no significant improvement, and downstream enterprises exhibit weak willingness to build inventories at high prices. With seasonal supply pressures further easing and deep-processing and feed enterprises having pre-holiday stockpiling needs, corn prices are expected to fluctuate within a range.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on December 9th, the benchmark price of corn from SunSirs was 2238.57 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.90% compared to the beginning of the month (2218.57 RMB/ton).

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