Price trend:
According to the SunSirs' commodity price analysis system, from December 1st to 5th, the domestic price of BDO remained at 7,385 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.77% compared to the previous month and a decrease of 13.98% compared to the same period last year. The domestic BDO market showed little fluctuation, with trading continuing based on existing contracts, and spot market negotiations were sluggish. The supply and demand sides continued to be in a stalemate, making it difficult for the market price to rise or fall significantly.
Market Analysis
On the supply side, regarding production facilities, the first phase of the Xinye plant was operating stably after restarting. The Sichuan Tianhua plant was undergoing maintenance, and the operating rates of plants such as Shuguang Luhua and Heimao were fluctuating within a narrow range. The industry's capacity utilization rate had increased slightly, resulting in weaker support from the supply side. Positive factors BDO supply had weakened.
Statistics on the operating status of equipment at some manufacturing companies:
|
Region |
Device dynamics |
|
Yanchang oil |
The load of the device was 50% |
|
Xinjiang Meike |
The third phase of the plant was stopped, and the first, second, fourth and fifth phases of the plant were relatively stable |
|
Inner Mongolia Sanwei |
The load of the device was 60-70% |
|
Xinjiang Guotai Xinhau |
The device was running stably |
|
Xinjiang Xinye |
The device was running stably |
|
Ningxia Wuheng Chemical |
The load of the device was 60-70% |
|
Sinopec Great Wall Energy |
Two sets of 100,000-ton units were operating steadily |
In terms of costs, for calcium carbide (raw material): the domestic calcium carbide market was generally on an upward trend, with smooth shipments from manufacturers and a tight supply situation in the market. For methanol (raw material): the methanol market had risen due to multiple factors, including reduced supply caused by operational difficulties at major plants in Northwest China, orderly release of demand for olefins in inland areas, no significant pressure on manufacturers' inventories, and positive market sentiment. As of 10:00 AM on December 5th, the reference price for methanol in Taicang was 2,090 RMB/ton. Both calcium carbide and methanol prices had risen, the cost of BDO was positive for the market.
On the demand side, operating rates in downstream industries such as PTMEG and TPU declined, while other downstream industries remained relatively stable, resulting in a slight decrease in overall demand. At the same time, the weak market conditions in downstream industries had led to price negotiation pressure on raw materials, suppressing their price trends. BDO demand was bearish for the market.
Market Forecast:
As of December 5, the supply and demand dynamics in the domestic BDO market remained in a state of flux, making it difficult for the market to find a stable equilibrium. Analysts at SunSirs predict that the domestic BDO market will experience limited fluctuations.
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