According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the domestic ship fuel market in East China experienced a fluctuating downward trend in November. As of December 4th, the average price of 180CST domestic fuel oil was 5,337.50 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.16% from 5,400.00 RMB/ton on November 1st.

In November, the domestic fuel oil price of 180CST fluctuated downward: In early November, the domestic ship oil price fell, mainly due to the decline in domestic ship oil blending raw material prices, and the continued rise in coastal bulk freight rates in the terminal shipping market. However, the main demand for ship owners' refueling is limited, which has limited support for the ship fuel market; In the middle of the month, the domestic ship fuel market stopped falling and rebounded, with domestic ship fuel blended raw material prices rising, supported by ship fuel costs, and the ship fuel market rising; In the latter half of the year, the domestic prices of blended raw materials for ship fuel increased, which supported the cost of ship fuel. However, the volatility of the international crude oil market increased domestic wait-and-see sentiment, and downstream coastal shipping market demand weakened, resulting in loose freight rates. Shipowners' demand for oil replenishment was mainly driven by urgent needs, leading to a decline in the ship fuel market. According to SunSirs, as of December 4th, the self extracted low sulfur quotation for 180CST fuel oil in Dalian area of China National Fuel Oil Corporation is 5,500 RMB/ton, and the self extracted low sulfur quotation for 120CST fuel oil is 5,600 RMB/ton; The self extracted low sulfur quotation for 180CST fuel oil in the Shanghai area of China National Fuel Oil Corporation is 5,000 RMB/ton, and the self extracted low sulfur quotation for 120CST fuel oil is 5,100 RMB/ton.

The international crude oil market fluctuated and declined in November: in the first half of the year, the market weighed the impact of oversupply risks, and the US government shutdown is expected to end, boosting the economy and demand expectations, leading to an increase in international oil prices; In mid month, the United States proposed a new plan to restart peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, reducing concerns about geopolitical risks and causing a decline in international oil prices; Later in the day, it was said that Ukraine had agreed to the new Russia Ukraine peace agreement proposed by the United States. Geopolitical concerns continued to ease, and international oil prices fell.

In terms of international fuel oil, it is reported that the Singapore Enterprise Development Board (ESG) stated that as of the week ending December 3, Singapore's fuel oil inventories rose by 850,000 barrels, reaching a 3-week high of 25.559 million barrels. The weekly data of oil products at Fujairah Port shows that the cumulative inventory of fuel oil depots ranges from 1.53 million barrels to 12.25 million barrels, with a month on month cumulative inventory of 14.32%.

Market forecast: The crude oil market will rise in December, supporting the domestic ship fuel market; Shipowners' urgent need for oil replenishment is mainly due to small orders, while coastal bulk cargo prices remain stable. At present, the self extracted low sulfur quotation for 180CST fuel oil is 5,100-5,500 RMB/ton, and the self extracted low sulfur quotation for 120CST fuel oil is 5,200-5,600 RMB/ton. It is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market will mainly consolidate in the near future.

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