Price trend

According to data from SunSirs, seamless tube prices fell slightly in November. At the beginning of the month, the price of 20#, 108*4.5 seamless tube was 4,080 RMB/ton, which fell to 4,060 RMB/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 0.49% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.68%.

Market Analysis

Regarding raw materials: The price of tube billets in Shandong province remained relatively weak throughout the month, directly squeezing the profit margins of local billet-rolled tube mills. This month, seamless tube mills in some regions continued to operate at a loss (e.g., Shandong billet-rolled tube mills had a profit of -130 RMB/ton). This meanst that production was facing significant operational pressure due to both cost support and weak demand. The rise in coke prices this month (up 2.8% in mid-November compared to early November) provided some support for the overall cost of ferrous metal commodities.

On the supply side: Some tube mills voluntarily reduced production due to losses, resulting in a decline in the operating rate of sample seamless tube mills nationwide in November. The capacity utilization rate and operating rate decreased by 0.72% and 0.99% week-on-week, respectively. This weakened the demand for raw materials to some extent.

On the demand side: the average daily transaction volume of seamless tube traders was around 14,000 tons. Although there were occasional increases on a single day, demand in northern regions hasd contracted by more than 10% due to the impact of cooling temperatures. Weak demand cannot support a sustained rise in raw material prices.

On the export front: October exports reached 578,100 tons, the second highest this year; however, the average export price declined for the fourth consecutive month, falling to $1,099.63 per ton.

Market Forecast:

In summary, as winter deepens, demand in the north will further decrease, and some resources may flow south. Meanwhile, if tube mills implement scheduled maintenance shutdowns, supply pressure is expected to ease slightly. Raw material prices remain supportive, and given weak demand, tube mill ex-factory prices are likely to see a slight decrease. The seamless tube market is expected to remain volatile and tend to be weaker in the near future.

If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.