Price trend:
According to the business data analysis system of SunSirs, the domestic BDO market was in a weak and stagnant state. From November 1st to 28th, the price of BDO fell from 7,437 RMB/ton to 7,385 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.69% during the period, and a year-on-year decrease of 15.38%.
Market Analysis
In November, the domestic BDO market remained weak and stagnant. Although there were frequent fluctuations in production facilities, the impact was short-lived, and the increased supply of goods weakened support from the supply side. With the restart of PTMEG maintenance units and other facilities, downstream demand increased. However, significant price pressure from the loss-making downstream industries led to intense negotiations between suppliers and buyers, resulting in a weak and stable market trend.
Supply side: Regarding production facilities, although some plants such as Sichuan Yongying and Shaanxi Black Cat underwent maintenance or temporary shutdowns, facilities such as Guotai Xinhua, Inner Mongolia Sanwei, and Changcheng Energy restarted operations, resulting in an increase in supply volume compared to the previous period. This weakened support from the supply side and intensified the cautious wait-and-see attitude in the market. The BDO supply side is negatively impacted by these factors.
Statistics on the maintenance and operational status of some manufacturing enterprises:
|
Region |
Device dynamics |
|
Shaanxi Shanhua |
The first phase was parked in early August 2024, and the second phase will be parked on February 22, 2025, and the restart time is undecided |
|
Xinjiang Meike |
The third phase of the plant was stopped, and the first, second,fourth and fifth phases of the plant werre relatively stable |
|
Inner Mongolia Sanwei |
The load of 300,000 tons of BDO plant was 60-70% |
|
Xinjiang Guotai Xinhua |
Two sets of 200,000-ton devices were operated stably |
|
Xinjiang Xinye |
The first phase of the 60,000 tons/year plant was the first phase of the change, and the first and second phases were running stably |
|
Ningxia Wuheng Chemical |
The load of the device was 60-70% |
|
Sichuan Tianhua |
Stable operation, planned maintenance on December 5 until the end of December |
From a cost perspective, for calcium carbide: the firm price of raw material semi-coke provided cost support for calcium carbide prices. Planned maintenance shutdowns downstream had decreased, leading to increased demand. With the resumption of operations at previously shut-down plants, supply had increased. The calcium carbide market was temporarily weak. For methanol: the domestic methanol market was experiencing weak and volatile fluctuations. As of 10:00 AM on November 28th, the reference price for methanol in Taicang was 2,115 RMB/ton. Both calcium carbide and methanol prices were weak, the cost of BDO negatively impacted the market.
On the demand side, downstream industries such as PTMEG, PBT, and PBAT increased their operating rates, leading to increased consumption of raw materials. However, due to generally weak end-user demand and difficulties in passing on costs downstream, the market conditions in many downstream industries had declined, and profit margins continued to be squeezed. Therefore, downstream companies were maintaining contract orders for raw materials, while spot market transactions were sluggish and prices were being pressured downwards. Overall, the demand side for BDO negatively impacted the market.
Market Forecast:
Although the Sichuan Yongying plant remained under maintenance, and Tianhua, Jianfeng, and Heimao had maintenance or catalyst replacement plans, other plants were operating relatively stably, providing only moderate support to the supply side. Downstream demand was generally acceptable, but cost pressures were high, leading to strong bargaining power over raw material prices. With increased supply and demand tensions, analysts at SunSirs predict that the domestic BDO market will continue to operate weakly.
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