Price trend:

The supply and demand dynamics improved in stages, and PTA prices fluctuated upwards in November. According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, the domestic PTA market saw a slight increase in November, followed by a period of consolidation in the latter half of the month. As of November 26, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4,628 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.86% compared to the beginning of the month.

Market Analysis

OPEC+'s new round of production increases had fueled concerns about long-term oversupply risks in the oil market. While regional tensions had eased somewhat, weakening US demand and the drag from US tariffs on global economic and demand expectations had led to a volatile decline in international crude oil prices. As of November 26, the settlement price for the January contract of US WTI crude oil futures was $58.65 per barrel, and the settlement price for the February contract of Brent crude oil futures was $62.54 per barrel.

On the supply side, PTA processing fees remained low in the short term, and inventories remained at low levels. At the end of the month, Honggang Petrochemical's 2.5 million-ton PTA unit would restart, but Yisheng Ningbo's 2.2 million-ton unit would be shut down, and some units would continue maintenance. Overall domestic supply continued to shrink, with the industry operating rate at 73%. In addition, with the cancellation of the BIS, exports from major suppliers increased significantly, tightening spot liquidity.

Downstream polyester saw a phased increase in production, with several new plants expected to come online before the Lunar New Year. This, coupled with plans to restart some polyester plants and relatively low inventory pressure at polyester filament factories, resulted in overall demand remaining at just-in-time levels. In the downstream weaving sector, demand was weak as winter garment orders were largely fulfilled. Domestic and international procurement gradually slowed, and new orders were insufficient. At the end of the month, the overall operating rate of weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 66%, with some weaving companies still expecting to reduce production.

Market outlook

Analysts at SunSirs believe that in the short term, geopolitical instability will increase the risk to oil prices, potentially providing support. Supply has increased somewhat, but the supply-demand balance remains tight. However, numerous external uncertainties have led to a stalemate in commodity prices, and with end-user demand entering the off-season, there is insufficient momentum for further price increases. PTA prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust in November.

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