Market research indicates that both the yield and quality of the 2025/26 new-crop corn season in Northeast China are higher than last year's levels.

In October, concerns over the bumper harvest and a month-on-month decline in feed demand led to pessimistic market sentiment regarding medium-to-long-term corn prices. Traders and downstream enterprises showed limited purchasing interest, with both market channels and mid-to-downstream companies maintaining low inventory levels. They are waiting for spot prices to fall further toward cost lines before resuming purchases.

This year's bountiful corn harvest in Northeast China, coupled with slow sales progress, has dampened restocking sentiment among mid-to-downstream players after they built sufficient inventories. Factors like weather conditions and pre-Spring Festival cash flow needs have also increased passive selling pressure at the grassroots level. This may ease the current tight supply situation and slow the upward trend in spot prices.

From a medium-to-long-term perspective, import margins for corn remain relatively high. With abundant supplies from bumper crops in the U.S. and Brazil, increased corn imports may occur if domestic spot prices become excessively high. Consequently, the corn market lacks the fundamentals for a bull run. However, given this year's low carryover stocks and limited year-on-year decline in feed demand, spot prices are likely to remain above last year's levels.

1. Production Increases Month-on-Month

Surveys conducted in mid-to-late November across parts of Northeast China indicate that this year's corn crop in the region is at historically high levels in terms of both quality and yield. However, estimates for year-on-year growth vary widely, ranging from 15% to 50%. This discrepancy may be related to the extent of last year's production decline in certain areas. Nevertheless, the consensus is that this year is a bumper crop year. A more reasonable estimate for the overall production increase in Northeast China corn is between 10% and 15%. Additionally, corn from North China and Central China has relatively high toxin levels due to delayed drying after rainfall. It is estimated that at least 30% of this corn cannot be used by feed enterprises, amounting to approximately 20-30 million tons. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's recent yield forecast, the projected corn production for the 2025/26 season in November is 300 million tons, an increase of 1.3% from the October forecast and 1.7% higher than the previous year.

2. Strong reluctance to sell among grassroots producers

Farmers are reluctant to sell, resulting in slower corn sales progress in Northeast China compared to the same period last year. However, sales in North China have been faster due to earlier unfavorable drying conditions. Overall, domestic sales progress was faster earlier in the season, but since November, the pace has been slower than last year.

Data indicates this year's sales progress is faster than last year's. However, based on field research and the current grain selling rhythm, the pace of corn sales is slower than in previous years at this stage.

3. Fourth-quarter imports to increase month-on-month

China's annual corn import quota remains relatively fixed at 7.2 million tons. Based on recent years' excess imports and auction calculations, estimated import reserves stand at approximately 20 million tons. Even if corn imports remain low next year, supply-side issues are unlikely to arise significantly. Moreover, this year's auctions only involve corn from 2020-2022, while newly imported excess corn has yet to enter the market. Should spot prices continue to rise, the state may increase auctions of old corn stocks. Moreover, these relatively fresh old stocks can also be utilized by feed enterprises. During the research period, visits to several feed enterprises revealed that some primarily procure auctioned grain, which is suitable for normal animal feed use.

Corn imports in October 2025 reached 360,000 tons, marking a 500.00% month-on-month increase and a 43.10% year-on-year rise. Both year-on-year and month-on-month import volumes surged significantly in October, with Brazil as the primary supplier. The recent sustained rebound in foreign trade inventories at Guangdong ports further indicates that corn imports arriving in the fourth quarter will substantially exceed those of the preceding two quarters. Brazilian corn imports typically occur in Q4 and Q1 of the following year. Based on shipping schedules, Brazilian corn arrivals from November to January next year are projected to range between 1.5 and 2 million tons. However, this volume remains within import quotas and is unlikely to significantly impact domestic corn supply and demand for now. Currently, import margins are favorable for both Brazilian and Argentine corn (subject to 1% tariffs) and U.S. corn (subject to 11% tariffs). Should spot prices rise beyond expectations or become uncontrollable, substantial increases in foreign imports cannot be ruled out.

4. Weak Stockpiling Intentions Among Mid-to-Downstream Players

As of November 24, operating rates for the two primary downstream products of corn deep processing—starch and ethanol—stood at 61% and 71%, respectively. This represents a year-on-year decrease of 8 percentage points for starch and an increase of 8 percentage points for ethanol. From a profitability perspective, recent surges in feed corn prices have increased procurement costs for both ethanol and starch producers, leading to a sharp decline in production profits. Consequently, starch operating rates have recently fallen, while starch inventories have reached their highest levels for this time of year in recent years. Due to declining profits, deep processing enterprises currently show weak procurement and stockpiling intentions, with corn inventories at these facilities trending downward against the broader market trend.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on December 3, the benchmark price of corn on SunSirs was 2225.71 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.32% compared with the beginning of the month (2218.57 RMB /ton).

Application of SunSirs Benchmark Pricing：

Traders can price spot and contract transactions based on the pricing principle of agreed markup and pricing formula (Transaction price=SunSirs price + Markup).

If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.