According to China Chemical News, potassium chloride market prices fell last week, primarily due to China's swift signing of a major potash import contract for 2026 at $348 per ton, maintaining its position as a global “price haven.” Industry analysts suggest this early signing stems from anticipated supply shortages in 2025, with China's domestic potash market currently operating under tight supply-demand conditions.

Domestic potash production capacity utilization has declined, with some manufacturers entering winter maintenance phases, leading to reduced output. The official delivered price for 60% powdered crystal potash in Qinghai remained stable at CNY 3,100. Market circulation prices hovered around CNY3,150, primarily due to imported potash price declines causing high-end prices to retreat.

Port inventories of imported potassium chloride have reached 2.35 million tons, showing a significant increase. However, supplies are concentrated in northern ports while southern ports remain relatively scarce. Despite the overall increase, inventories are still nearly 30% lower than the same period last year, far below the 3 million ton safety stock threshold. This is the reason for the early signing of potash contracts. Port prices for 62% white potash range from 3,150 to CNY3,450, with the lower end being the reference price and supplies scarce. Due to limited availability, higher-priced potash quotations have only seen minor declines. Port prices for 60% large red granules stand at 3,300 to CNY3,350, with the lower end as the reference price and higher-priced goods experiencing faster declines. Border trade in Manzhouli faces tight spot supply, though December import orders are reportedly secured, ensuring future import volumes. Border trade 62% white potash prices range from CNY3150 to 3200 , with the lower end serving as a reference price. Higher-priced goods are declining more rapidly, primarily due to increased shipments by major importers.

Last week, potassium sulfate prices remained stable. The operating rate of processed potassium sulfate plants hovered around 45%, maintaining stability as enterprises saw reduced inventory pressure and prepared for future demand. Currently, the ex-factory price for 52% fully water-soluble powdered potassium sulfate stands at approximately CNY3,900, though sales remain sluggish. Reports indicate some manufacturers quoted slightly higher prices, primarily due to rising cost pressures. Resource-based potassium sulfate production, sales, and transportation remained largely stable, with some manufacturers halting operations and overall operating rates slightly declining. The delivered price for 50% powdered potassium sulfate stands at approximately CNY3,550 .

Overall, shipment volumes remain the core variable driving the potash fertilizer market, rather than the large contracts themselves. Therefore, the potash fertilizer market is expected to remain stable in the near term. Based on conventional industry logic, the reliability of future imported potash arrivals has improved, making significant price surges due to supply shortages relatively unlikely. Upstream and downstream players should align their procurement and sales strategies with import arrival schedules and actual demand to minimize operational risks from market volatility.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on December 3, the benchmark price of potassium chloride (imported) on SunSirs was 3,533.33 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.95% compared with the beginning of the month (3,500.00 RMB/ton).

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