Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs: Last week (November 24-28), the market price of No. 1 tin ingot in East China fluctuated and rose. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 293,810 RMB/ton, and the average market price at the end of the week was 300,610 RMB/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.31%.

Market Analysis

Tin prices initially rose before declining last week. From the beginning to the middle of the week, prices continued to climb, supported by expectations of potentially tighter supply and low inventory levels. Particularly on Thursday, tin prices surged, with the Shanghai tin futures contract briefly breaking through the important 300,000 RMB/ton mark. On Friday, futures prices continued their upward trend; however, high prices in the spot market suppressed purchasing demand, leading to sluggish trading and a divergence between spot and futures prices.

On the raw material side, the slow recovery of tin mines in Myanmar had resulted in a less than ideal improvement in domestic raw material supply. Under these circumstances, persistently low processing fees had limited the production enthusiasm of smelters. Meanwhile, some uncertainties had emerged in Indonesian exports, keeping global refined tin visible inventories at low levels.

On the supply side, tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi maintained stable production at high levels last week. Production in Yunnan recovered significantly, while production in Jiangxi was slightly weak. Tight raw material supply was a common constraint on capacity release in both regions.

On the demand side, although consumption in traditional sectors such as consumer electronics and tinplate was somewhat weak, long-term demand expectations from emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles and AI servers provided support for tin prices, and the operating rate of tin solder companies had shown a slight recovery trend.

Market Forecast:

As of November 28, the tight supply of raw materials at the ore end remained unchanged, while tin prices rose sharply, impacting the spot market to some extent. Some downstream and end-user companies, concerned about continued price increases, conducted small-scale restocking operations on November 27, making purchases to meet their immediate needs. However, other downstream and end-user companies were still adopting a wait-and-see approach given the price levels. Overall, tin prices are expected to continue fluctuating at high levels.

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