Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, as of November 27, the average reference price of urea in the domestic market was 1,652 RMB/ton, compared with the average reference price of 1,607 RMB/ton on November 1, the domestic urea market price increased by 2.80% this month.

Market Analysis

Supply and demand situation

Domestic urea prices fluctuated upwards this month. The urea futures market strengthened, and the spot market followed suit with a generally strong performance. The combined positive impact of exports and a new round of Indian tenders increased market optimism. Daily urea production remained high, maintaining supply pressure. On the demand side, following the phosphate compound fertilizer conference, winter stockpiling demand for fertilizers began to increase, downstream raw material procurement demand rose, and market trading activity improved.

Market Situation

As of November 27th, the market price of urea in Shandong was around 1,600-1,650 RMB/ton, in Hebei it was around 1,620-1,660 RMB/ton, in Henan it was around 1,610-1650 RMB/ton, and in Liaoning it was around 1680-1720 RMB/ton.

The weekly candlestick chart from September 1, 2024 to November 17, 2025 showed that domestic urea prices fluctuated throughout the cycle. November saw a significant increase in domestic urea prices, with the largest rise occurring in the week of November 3rd, at 1.57%.

Market Forecast:

According to analysts at SunSirs, the urea market saw slight fluctuations recently. Downstream demand was temporarily focused on restocking for immediate needs, while industrial and agricultural demand remained stable, resulting in moderate market activity. Urea inventory levels remained high, leading to a cautious market sentiment. It is expected that domestic urea prices will consolidate within a narrow range in the short term.

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