Precious metals rose in November and then traded sideways

According to the SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, as of November 27, 2025, the spot gold market price in the morning session was 941.83 RMB/gram, an increase of 2.53% compared to the spot gold market price of 918.62 RMB/gram at the beginning of the month (November 1).

According to the SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, the average price of silver on November 27, 2025 was 12,395 RMB/kg, an increase of 8.01% compared to the average price of silver at the beginning of the month (November 1) of 11,476 RMB/kg.

After rising in November, precious metals experienced a slight pullback and then entered a sideways to slightly bullish consolidation phase.

Overview of precious metal and crude oil price trends

Since 2025, the price correlation between precious metals and Brent crude oil has changed from a weak positive correlation in the short term to a significant negative correlation in the long term.

A comparison of the price trends of precious metals gold and silver over the past year

Looking at the past year, gold and silver had maintained a strong positive correlation. The price changes of gold and silver had generally moved in the same direction, with their price movements largely synchronized over most of the time. In November, silver prices saw a more significant increase due to the short squeeze event in London.

The underlying logic behind the strong prices of precious metals

The supporting logic for high precious metal prices: high central bank gold purchases, resilient real demand, and the possibility of marginal inflows into ETFs. The surge in precious metal prices this year wis mainly supported by the combined effect of three factors: declining real interest rates, a weakening US dollar, and increased central bank holdings.

Recent Trading Logic for Precious Metals

1. Investment Demand and Tight Inventory: Global gold ETFs have increased their holdings for five consecutive months since October, with a cumulative increase of 55.4 tons (47 tons flowing into North America, 45 tons into Asia, and 37.4 tons flowing out of Europe). SPDR Gold ETF holdings reached 1,040.9 tons (a more than 3-year high). SLV Silver ETFs increased their holdings by 253.9 tons in a single day (the largest increase in more than a month). COMEX gold inventories decreased by 2.8 million ounces and silver inventories decreased by 41.94 million ounces. Domestic silver inventories fell to a 10-year low, and China's exports of unwrought silver in October reached 654 tons (the highest since June 2007). The Ministry of Commerce has strengthened silver export controls.

2. Reversal in Fed Rate Cut Expectations: The US government shutdown led to a lack of economic data, and structural economic imbalances caused divisions among Fed officials. Later, key officials such as Williams of the New York Fed supported a rate cut, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December rose back to 80%. Currently, three hawks oppose a rate cut, while Daly of the San Francisco Fed supports a rate cut, which may indicate Powell's attitude.

Market outlook

From the end of 2025 to 2026, the precious metals market will be in a triple-positive cycle of "macroeconomic easing + industry dividends + geopolitical catalysts," with short-term volatility but a slightly bullish bias and a continued bull market in the medium term. Gold prices are expected to rise, while silver will show even greater resilience (with an estimated increase of over 30% in 2026). Despite short-term risks such as better-than-expected US economic data and easing geopolitical tensions, the three core drivers in the medium to long term–declining real interest rates, weakening dollar credibility, and explosive growth in industry demand – remain unchanged. Precious metals will continue to be one of the best assets for "navigating economic cycles."

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