Price trend:

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the domestic PTA market was stagnant recently, remaining at a relatively high level for the past two months. As of November 26, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4,654 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.20% compared to November 10.

Market Analysis

From the cost side, the new round of OPEC+ production increases had raised concerns about long-term oversupply risks. While regional tensions had eased somewhat, weakening US demand and the drag from US tariffs on the global economy and demand expectations had led to a decline in international oil prices. As of November 25th, the settlement price of the January contract for US WTI crude oil futures was $57.95 per barrel, down $0.89 or 1.5%. The settlement price of the February contract for Brent crude oil futures was $61.80 per barrel, down $0.92 or 1.5%..

From a supply and demand perspective, Yisheng Ningbo's 2.2 million-ton PTA unit shut down on November 20th, and Honggang Petrochemical's 2.5 million-ton PTA unit shut down on November 17th and restarted on November 26th. As of November 26, the PTA operating rate was around 72%, with many units undergoing maintenance. With the completion of some short-term maintenance, there is some pressure on supply.

Downstream polyester new plants were put into operation one after another, and some plants postponed maintenance again, increasing the supply of polyester in the domestic industry. However, due to the slow increase in the operating rate of new plants, the operating rate of the polyester industry remains at around 87%. The demand in the end market had begun to show signs of cooling. As of November 26, the production rhythm of weaving factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was still mainly supported by previously received orders. As new orders gradually weakened, the pressure increased, and the enthusiasm for raw material procurement decreased.

Market Forecast:

Analysts at SunSirs believe that cost support was weak, and PTA supply will gradually recover. India's cancellation of BIS certification for polyester filament is expected to improve China’s polyester filament and textile exports, but weak domestic demand and cautious expectations for a subsequent order recovery suggested limited upward momentum for PTA. Therefore, overall, PTA's upward momentum is insufficient.

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