According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price trend of Shandong's refined gasoline and diesel in November has shown some differentiation. As of the end of the month, the domestic price of 92# gasoline was 7,117.6 RMB/ton, with a slight increase of 0.15% in November, and the gasoline market price was mainly fluctuating; The domestic price of 0# diesel is 6,498 RMB/ton, with a price trend increase of 1.71% in November.

Cost aspect: Crude oil market fluctuates and refined oil products change accordingly

The crude oil market prices fluctuated widely, and as of the 27th, the US futures market was closed for Thanksgiving. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for February is $62.87 per barrel. The crude oil market is affected by both long and short factors. On the one hand, OPEC+ oil producing countries have increased production in a new round, and the market is still concerned about the long-term risk of oversupply, which has suppressed the crude oil market; However, geopolitical factors have led to a decrease in Russian supply, and coupled with the easing of US tariffs, this news is positive for the international crude oil market, with the crude oil market trending upwards. The crude oil market directly affects the domestic refined oil market, with domestic gasoline and diesel prices slightly rising.

Supply side: Shandong local refining plant starts production to maintain normal supply of refined oil products

Recently, some facilities in the local refining industry have increased their operating load, but the operating rate has not changed much. The average operating rate of Shandong's local refining industry is around 54%, while the operating rate of the country's main refineries remains at around 80%. The supply of refined oil from local refining industries has been maintained, and there has been little change in the supply of Shandong's gasoline and diesel, limiting the upward trend of Shandong's gasoline and diesel market.

Demand side: Demand is still acceptable, gasoline fluctuates, diesel rises

In terms of gasoline, residents' travel and other activities are mainly normal. In addition, the recent fluctuations in the crude oil market have made it difficult for domestic gasoline terminal consumption to increase, resulting in relatively stable demand. However, the increasing popularity of new energy vehicles has led to lower than expected demand performance, and the gasoline market is mainly volatile. In terms of diesel, the supply side of the diesel market has been normal recently, while the demand side is still dominated by rigid demand. In November, the rainy weather decreased, and construction projects caught up with the schedule. Traditional industries provided bottom support. In addition, the autumn planting in the first ten days and the e-commerce festival increased the activity of the logistics and transportation industry. In terms of marine fuel, there has been an increase compared to before. In addition, the northern region has switched to -10# diesel, which has led to a slight rise in the diesel market.

The supply side risks of crude oil have not been eliminated in the near future, and international oil prices are mainly weakly fluctuating in the short term, which has limited cost support for the domestic refined oil market. From a domestic perspective, the short-term refinery operating rate is relatively stable, the supply of refined oil is loose, and in terms of gasoline, stable daily demand is the main factor, which is difficult to boost the market to a certain extent. There are currently no favorable factors for diesel demand, and the overall performance is average. It is expected that the trend of the gasoline and diesel market will mainly fluctuate in the later stage.

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