The International Energy Agency recently released the "World Energy Outlook 2025" (hereinafter referred to as the "report"), which shows that global data center investment this year will exceed global crude oil supply investment for the first time. This not only marks a change in the direction of energy investment, but also reveals that the core driving force supporting global economic growth has shifted from crude oil to electricity, while energy risks are shifting from "barrels" to "bytes.
The growth rate of electricity demand far exceeds the growth rate of energy demand.
The report makes a unified forecast under three scenarios: electricity demand will grow much faster than overall energy demand, energy demand related to data centers and artificial intelligence (AI) will become more prominent, renewable energy will grow faster than other major energy sources, and the nuclear power revival is unstoppable.
By 2035, 80% of the growth in global energy consumption will occur in regions with high-quality solar resources. In addition, investment in both traditional large nuclear power plants and small modular reactors continues to increase, and the global installed nuclear power capacity is expected to increase by at least one third by 2035. At the same time, the peak of global oil and gas demand may come later than expected, and oil and gas supply related to geopolitical risks still needs to be carefully watched.
The era of electricity has brought new dependence, and the risk of rupture in the supply chain of key mineral metals caused by the high concentration of the market is increasing. Since 2020, the geographic concentration of refining has increased in almost all key minerals, especially nickel and cobalt. The report shows that 19 of the 20 energy-related minerals are refined and processed by a single country, with an average market share of up to 70%.
The International Energy Agency pointed out that as energy demand continues to surge, diversification and cooperation are more important than ever. "Looking back at energy history in recent decades, there has never been a time when energy security tensions involved so many energy sources and technologies at the same time." IEA Director Fatih Birol stressed.
■■ Data Center Investment First Exceeds Crude Oil Supply Investment
electricity is at the heart of the modern economy, and by 2035, electricity demand will increase by 40% based on the current policy scenario and the established policy scenario; Electricity demand will increase by 50% based on the net zero emission scenario.
The report points out that at present, the investment in the field of electricity supply and terminal electricity has accounted for half of the total global energy investment. Electricity accounts for about 20% of the world's final energy consumption, but it is a key source of energy for more than 40% of the global economy.
Unlike the trend of the past decade, electricity consumption growth is no longer limited to emerging and developing economies. The rapid growth in demand for data centers and AI is driving a surge in power consumption in advanced economies. Global data center investment is expected to reach US $580 billion billion this year, surpassing the US $540 billion investment in the global crude oil supply sector.
For AI applications, the three scenarios make a common trend outlook: the widespread use of AI will drive a significant increase in data center power demand. It is estimated that by 2035, based on the current policy scenario, data center electricity consumption will more than triple, accounting for 10% of the increase in global electricity demand.
At the same time, the supply chain of core components such as Transformers, cables, gas turbines and key minerals has been under pressure. Among them, the transformer delivery backlog has intensified, which has seriously affected the infrastructure deployment required to meet the data center construction. It is estimated that by 2030, about 20% of new data center capacity is at risk of delayed delivery of core components.
The International Energy Agency pointed out that in the power age, a key issue of energy security is the speed at which new power grids, energy storage and other power system flexibility resources are put into use. Over the next decade, more than 85 percent of the world's new data centers are expected to be in the U. S., China and the European Union, many of which are located near clusters of existing data centers, putting additional strain on congested power grids.
At present, the power grid construction lags behind the power generation capacity. Since 2015, investment in power generation has increased by nearly 70%, but the annual growth in power grid investment has been very slow, less than half of the growth in power generation investment, and the pace of power grid modernization has been seriously dragged down by the increasing frequency of extreme weather events and uncontrollable risks such as cyber threats.
■ Oil and gas demand growth may continue until 2050
according to the report, global demand for crude oil and natural gas is likely to continue to grow until 2050. Based on the current policy scenario, global crude oil demand will increase by about 13% from 2024 levels by 2050, and there will be no meaningful decline in carbon dioxide emissions. Based on the established policy scenario, global crude oil demand is expected to peak around 2030.
In terms of regional demand trends, almost all of the growth in crude oil demand has occurred in emerging market and developing economies, with India, Southeast Asia and Africa among the countries or regions with the largest demand growth. Based on the current policy scenario, India will lead the growth of global crude oil demand in the next 10 years, and nearly half of the world's new crude oil production will go to the country by 2035. By 2035, African crude oil demand will increase by 1/3. At the same time, the demand for crude oil in the Middle East will also increase by nearly 1 million barrels per day by 2035.
Based on the current policy scenario, the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market is expected to grow to 880 billion cubic meters by 2035 and reach 1.02 trillion cubic meters by 2050.
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