Price trend:

Last week (November 17-21), domestic liquid ammonia prices mainly declined after rising. According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the weekly decline in liquid ammonia prices in Shandong was 0.67%. This was mainly due to the gradual lifting of environmental protection-related production restrictions in some northern provinces and the resumption of operation of some plants, leading to increased supply. As of November 21, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong was between 2,400-2,580 RMB/ton.

Market Analysis

From the supply side, supply maintained a steady upward trend last week. Environmental production restrictions in northern China ended, and ammonia plants gradually resumed operations. Liquid ammonia production in Shandong, Hebei, and Henan remained high, causing prices to stop rising and even decline slightly. Prices in Northwest China, Inner Mongolia, and Ningxia declined significantly, while prices in Southwest China rose slightly, showing some regional divergence. From the beginning to the middle of the week, some companies in Shandong lowered prices, but the reductions were not large. Major manufacturers in Shandong generally adjusted prices by less than 100 RMB/ton, indicating a basic balance between supply and demand. However, with companies expected to resume operations later, supply may continue to increase.

On the demand side, downstream demand remained lukewarm, with compound fertilizer operating rates remaining low and the phosphate fertilizer market weak, resulting in relatively weak demand. However, urea shipments increased recently, and prices rebounded during the week; according to the commodity analysis system, urea prices rose by 1.53% weekly. This waws due to increased reserves and demand in Northeast China, coupled with the upcoming Indian tender, creating speculative demand in the market. Overall, domestic industrial demand remained weak, and agricultural demand was mainly based on immediate needs and sporadic restocking. Demand improvement was limited, and a wait-and-see attitude still dominated the market.

Market Forecast:

Analysts at SunSirs believe that the supply and demand pressure in the liquid ammonia market is expected to be moderate next week, and the market may enter a period of fluctuation. On the one hand, supply in some regions will remain stable in the short term, suppressing further price increases. On the other hand, agricultural demand has not improved at all, and industrial demand remains weak. Therefore, it is expected that liquid ammonia will find it difficult to continue to rise, and the market will mainly adjust within a range in the later period.

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