Price trend:
According to the SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, from November 17th to 21st, the domestic MDI market price rose slightly, with an average price of 14,466 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week and 14,600 RMB/ton at the end of the week, representing a 0.92% increase during the period and a 20.36% decrease year-on-year. During the week, Shanghai factories offered MDI to distributors at 14,600 RMB/ton, while fixed-price customers received 14,800 RMB/ton. Major manufacturers have recently increased maintenance shutdowns, leading to expectations of tighter supply, increased trader confidence, and price increases. Inquiries increased, but downstream buyers purchased only as needed, resulting in generally moderate transaction volume.
Market Analysis
On the supply side: Wanhua Ningbo plant began maintenance on November 15th, and the maintenance is expected to last about 55 days. BASF's Chongqing plant and Covestro's Shanghai plant both have maintenance plans in December.
On the cost side, benzene prices fluctuated at low levels this week. Rising international prices drove up domestic prices, but this quickly fell back due to weak benzene fundamentals. Furthermore, with many imports still arriving and import expectations high for November, the benzene market is more likely to fall than rise. The aniline market saw a slight increase this week. On November 17th, the aniline price was 7,800 RMB/ton, and on November 21st, it was 7,825 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.32% within the period.
On the demand side, downstream demand is entering the market only as needed, and resistance to high-priced goods is increasing, making it difficult to increase transaction volume.
Market outlook
The supply of MDI is currently tight, but the resistance to further price increases is increasing. We should closely monitor changes in market supply and demand. In the short term, the MDI market is expected to remain relatively stronger.
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