At the meeting, GGII released the "2025 China Solid-State Battery Industry Chain Development Blue Book" (hereinafter referred to as the "Blue Book"). The Blue Book predicts the development stages of solid-state batteries and analyzes the possible changes in the lithium battery industry chain.

The blue book divides the development of solid-state battery industry into four periods: from 2013 to 2018, it is the period of technology exploration, during which the possibility is mainly explored in the laboratory; from 2018 to 2023, it is the period of technology development, during which many fields begin to install and verify, and many technology routes develop in parallel, and the industry research focuses on how to move towards large-scale production; from 2023 to 2027, it is the initial period of market application, and the application of semi-solid-state batteries in the digital and military markets is gradually increasing, and the scale matching in the new energy vehicle field is developing, and the technology patents, process equipment, industry chain matching and other aspects are developing in an all-round way; from 2027 to 2040, it is the period of rapid market development, the commercialization of semi-solid-state batteries continues to accelerate, the application of full solid-state batteries is accelerated, the technology routes develop in parallel, and domestic solid-state battery enterprises accelerate into foreign markets.

According to GGII analysis, this year and next year are the stages for domestic full solid-state battery pilot lines to transition to megawatt-hour pilot lines. More than 20 domestic companies are heavily investing in the construction of megawatt-hour full solid-state battery pilot lines. In this stage, the technical performance of products is not the first concern, and the ability to develop customers and cost control become important goals.

After entering the fourth stage "market rapid development period" in 2027, the pilot line of all-solid-state batteries will gradually be converted into small lines for production, to accumulate process experience. It is expected that from 2027 (or 2028) to 2030, the industry will focus on building GWh-level production lines to cope with the possible rapid development of all-solid-state batteries after 2030.

In terms of market demand, GGII believes that in the next five years, energy storage will become the fastest-growing segment for solid-state batteriesshipments, mainly driven by the shipment of semi-solid-state batteries. However, after 2027, with the increase in the installation of new energy vehicles and the breakthrough in the mass production of all-solid-state battery technology, new energy vehicles will become the main incremental market and the main application market for solid-state batteries. After 2035, emerging markets such as eVTOL and robots will become new growth points. However, all-solid-state batteries are still limited by insufficient cycle life, and their penetration rate in the energy storage market will still be low.

From the global market perspective, the global shipment of solid-state lithium batteries in 2024 was 8.1 GWh, and more than 95% of the global solid-state battery shipments were occupied by Chinese enterprises. It is expected that by 2035, the global shipment of solid-state lithium batteries is expected to exceed 900 GWh, among which the shipment of all-solid-state batteries will exceed 550 GWh.

The production capacity of (semi) solid-state batteries is expected to see a construction boom.

The blue book analysis shows that there is only a small overlap in some areas between the full solid-state battery and the lithium battery industry chain, such as upstream mineral resources, positive electrode materials, negative electrode materials and packaging materials, while most other links are quite different. The production of full solid-state batteries will have a certain impact on the existing lithium battery industry chain, but it will more likely be positive.

It is expected that from 2025 to 2026, there will be a peak in the construction of solid-state battery capacity, mainly focusing on semi-solid batteries, and the capacity in the energy storage field is expected to be released preferentially. It is expected that after 2030, the full solid-state battery capacity will reach the level of tens of GWh, and it is expected to drive the demand for electrolyte materials to exceed one million tons, and the demand for equipment will exceed 100 billion RMB.

As a device manufacturer, Zhao Shengyu introduced that the investment for the solid-state battery production line is about 250 million to 300 million RMB per GWh. Although it is more difficult to achieve a breakthrough in all-solid-state batteries, the industrialization of solid-state batteries is still a strategic high ground.

At present, there is still a large gap between the capacity planning and the actual construction. According to incomplete statistics from GGII, the total amount of planned expansion of the domestic solid-state battery industry in the past four years has exceeded 250 billion RMB, and the planned capacity of the domestic solid-state battery industry has exceeded 450 GWh, more than 98% of which are semi-solid-state batteries. From the perspective of the actual implementation of capacity, the actual installed capacity in the industry has exceeded 25 GWh at present, and the actual effective utilization capacity is less than 20 GWh.

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