Price trend:
According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the domestic PTA market showed a trend of first falling and then rising last week (November 10-14). As of November 14, the spot price of PTA in East China was 4,671 RMB/ton, up 0.55% from the beginning of the week.
Market Analysis
In the international crude oil market, as of November 13th, the settlement price of the December contract for US WTI crude oil futures was $58.69 per barrel, and the settlement price of the January contract for Brent crude oil futures was $63.01 per barrel. Further monitoring of the extent of oversupply in the crude oil market was crucial, as this was the core factor driving oil price direction. As of November 14, global inventories accumulated further. If there is continued unexpected inventory buildup, oil prices are expected to continue their downward trend amidst fluctuations.
On the PTA supply side, Sichuan Energy Investment Group underwent maintenance shutdown last week, Fuhai Chuang adjusted its load, and other plants saw little change, resulting in a slight decrease in overall domestic output, with the industry operating rate hovering around 76%. Next week, some plants in East China are scheduled for maintenance, while other plants will remain stable, leading to a slight decrease in output.
Downstream polyester industry operating rates declined slightly to 87%. Even though some domestic polyester plants increased their operating rates during the week, such as Sanfangxiang, Chongqing Wankai's plant underwent maintenance, resulting in a greater decrease in polyester supply than an increase. Purchasing was mainly driven by immediate needs, lacking sustained restocking momentum, and production and sales returned to normal levels. In the downstream weaving sector, while the cooling temperatures had somewhat absorbed demand, overall orders had not yet shown any real recovery, and a wait-and-see attitude prevailed.
Market outlook
Analysts at SunSirs believe that PTA supply will remain tight in the short term, while demand will remain stable. However, declining end-user demand is dampening purchasing activity, and with crude oil prices falling, PTA market prices are expected to weaken.
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