Price trend:

Last week (November 10-14), domestic liquid ammonia prices continued their upward trend. According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, the weekly increase in liquid ammonia prices in Shandong Province was 3.33%, showing a relatively strong increase. This was mainly due to the combined effects of environmental protection-related production restrictions in northern China, supply benefits from plant maintenance in some areas, and improved downstream demand, which drove the continued rise in domestic liquid ammonia prices. As of November 14, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong Province was between 2,400-2,600 RMB/ton.

Analysis review

From the supply side, the supply-demand situation continued to change last week, with supply remaining tight. Environmental protection-related production restrictions in some major northern producing provinces led to lower operating rates for enterprises, coupled with some plants still undergoing maintenance, resulting in a decrease in supply. Additionally, prices in Northwest and Inner Mongolia were affected by Hebei and Shanxi, causing a coordinated upward trend. Southwest gas-based ammonia plants reduced production and operated at lower capacity, leading to a slight price rebound. Last week, manufacturers in Shandong raised prices by 100-200 RMB/ton, with varying degrees of price increases from the beginning to the end of the week. The market was characterized by supply falling short of demand.

On the demand side, downstream demand had improved slightly. The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants continued to improve, maintaining a strong demand for urea. In particular, downstream nitric acid prices rose sharply, leading to higher operating rates at acid plants and a significant increase in demand for liquid ammonia. Overall, in agriculture, agricultural procurement demand increased significantly, while industrial demand remained at a basic level, with demand showing a moderate upward trend. Downstream urea prices also continued to recover. According to the SunSirs commodity analysis system, urea prices rose by 0.46% last week, with end-users strengthening their purchasing power and mostly buying on dips.

Market Forecast:

Analysts at SunSirs believe that the rise in liquid ammonia prices last week was mainly due to favorable supply conditions. However, with the expected resumption of maintenance at plants in northern China next week, the tight supply situation may ease later, and the potential for further price increases in liquid ammonia is expected to be limited.

If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.