Price trend:
According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs from November 10th to 14th, the domestic BDO price adjusted to 7,442 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.31% month-on-month and 15.28% year-on-year. Many plants restarted, weakening supply-side support. However, the industry had long suffered losses, and suppliers remained committed to maintaining a stable market. Downstream demand increased, but contract fulfillment was driven by cost pressures, resulting in sluggish spot purchases and price negotiations. The supply-demand game intensified, making market fluctuations difficult.
Analysis review
On the supply side, although Sichuan Yongying's plant underwent maintenance shutdown, plants such as Guotai Xinhua and Great Wall Energy restarted, raising the industry's capacity utilization rate to around 56%. This increased supply and exacerbated the cautious wait-and-see attitude among industry players. The positive factors for BDO supply had weakened.
Statistics on the operation of some production facilities:
|
region |
Device dynamics |
|
Yanchang oil |
Relatively stable operation |
|
Xinjiang Meike |
The third phase of the device was stopped, and the load of the first, second, fourth and fifth phases was 80% |
|
Inner Mongolia Sanwei |
The load was 60-70% |
|
Xinjiang Cathay Pacific Xinhua |
Stable operation |
|
Xinjiang New Industry |
Stable operation |
|
Ningxia Wuheng Chemical |
The load of the device was 60-70% |
|
Sinopec Great Wall Energy |
a set of devices was stable in operation; A set of devices was replaced on October 30 and resumed on November 8 |
On the cost side, for raw material calcium carbide: the price of semi-coke, a raw material for calcium carbide production, increased by 60 RMB/ton, further exacerbating the loss pressure on calcium carbide enterprises. Under cost pressure, increased maintenance shutdowns led to a slight decrease in supply, and inventory reduction in the producing areas was evident. For raw material methanol: the domestic methanol market was weak and consolidating. As of 10:00 AM on November 14th, the domestic methanol price in Taicang was around 2070 RMB/ton. With both raw material calcium carbide and methanol prices weak, the cost of BDO provided negative factors for the market.
On the demand side, the main downstream PTMEG industry saw increased demand as Guotai and Meike restarted their maintenance units, and the PBT industry also increased its operating rate. Other downstream industries maintained stable operating rates, resulting in an overall increase in consumption. However, many downstream industries were facing significant losses and ere mostly maintaining contract-based purchases, leading to sluggish spot market purchases and price negotiations. BDO demand also provided negative factors for the market.
Market Forecast:
Supply was slightly reduced due to maintenance at Sichuan Yongying's plant. Downstream demand remained largely unchanged, maintaining only basic needs but accompanied by price negotiations. SunSirs' BDO analyst predicts that the domestic BDO market will remain weak and stable.
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